Technical documentation for building AI agents that autonomously trade prediction markets. 185+ guides covering APIs, wallets, identity, arbitrage, bot selection, the full agent betting stack, and the complete Math Behind Betting series.
What’s New (April 2026)
- Polymarket pmUSD + CTF Exchange V2 (April 6 / April 22, 2026) — native 1:1 USDC-backed stablecoin replaces bridged USDC.e; V2 introduces EIP-1271 smart contract wallet support and faster order matching. Coverage across the Polymarket review, py_clob_client reference, and agent betting stack.
- Polymarket perpetual futures (April 21, 2026) — 10x+ leverage on crypto and stocks through the same CLOB API as binary markets.
- Kalshi + Benzinga + Fiscal.ai KPI markets (April 21, 2026) — new category of company-KPI event contracts (Tesla production, DoorDash deliveries, Netflix subscribers, earnings outcomes); dedicated bot archetype.
- Kalshi fixed-point pricing (March 2026) — legacy integer-cent fields deprecated; prices are now dollar strings (
yes_price_dollars: "0.6500") and quantities use_fpsuffix. See the Kalshi API guide and best Kalshi trading bots.
Jump to: Getting Started | Math Behind Betting | The Stack | Casino Agents | Agent Frameworks | Prop Bets | Event Guides | API Guides | Wallet & Identity | Bot Selection & Marketplace | Building & Selling | Arbitrage & Strategy | Terminology
Getting Started
- Prediction Markets 101 — what prediction markets are, how they work, and how to start trading
- Sports Betting 101 — odds, bet types, bankroll management, and strategy basics
- Are Prediction Markets Legal? — US regulation, CFTC, Kalshi, Polymarket, and election betting
- How Prediction Market Odds Work — probability, pricing, expected value, and finding an edge
- Line Movement Explained — why odds change, sharp vs. public money, steam moves, reverse line movement, and closing line value
- Regulated vs. Offshore Betting Platforms — sportsbooks and prediction markets compared across legality, odds, payouts, safety, and API access
The Math Behind Betting
The 40-part quantitative series covering every mathematical concept an autonomous betting agent needs — from probability fundamentals through advanced ML techniques. Each guide includes derivations, Python implementations, and agent integration patterns.
Foundations
- Prediction Market Math 101 — prices, probabilities, and the no-arbitrage condition
- Expected Value (EV) for Prediction Market Agents — the only metric that determines whether an agent should trade
- Efficient Market Hypothesis for Prediction Markets — when and why prediction markets are (not) efficient
- Prediction Market Microstructure — orderbooks, spreads, depth, and market mechanics
- Bayesian Updating for Prediction Markets — revising probability estimates when new evidence arrives
- Sports Betting Math 101 — odds formats, vig calculation, and probability extraction
Bet Sizing & Bankroll
- The Kelly Criterion: Optimal Bet Sizing — full derivation, fractional Kelly, and simultaneous Kelly for multiple bets
- Drawdown Math & Variance — risk of ruin, max drawdown, and surviving losing streaks
- Bankroll Growth & Compound Returns — geometric growth rate and long-run capital trajectory
- Correlation Risk in Parlays — when legs aren’t independent and how it changes the math
Statistical Models
- Closing Line Value (CLV) — the gold standard for measuring betting edge
- Poisson Distribution for Sports Modeling — scoring models for soccer, hockey, and baseball
- Elo Ratings & Power Rankings — rating systems for predictive modeling
- Regression Models for Sports Betting — linear, logistic, and regularized regression
- Monte Carlo Simulation — sampling uncertainty and scenario analysis
- Line Movement Analysis — reading sharp money, steam moves, and reverse line movement
Information & Decision Theory
- Information Theory & Betting Edge — entropy, KL divergence, and quantifying information advantage
- Correlation & Portfolio Theory — diversifying bets and managing correlated positions
- Statistical Significance in Sports Betting — hypothesis testing, p-values, and sample size requirements
- Calibration & Model Evaluation — Brier score, log-loss, and reliability diagrams
Market Design
- LMSR Automated Market Maker Math — the cost function behind prediction market AMMs
- Multi-Outcome Markets & Combinatorial Math — pricing and probability in markets with many outcomes
- Prediction Market Scoring Rules — proper scoring rules, Brier, logarithmic, and CRPS
- Market Manipulation Detection Math — forensic analysis of suspicious market activity
Sport-Specific Models
- NFL Mathematical Modeling — point spreads, totals, player props, and EPA models
- Expected Goals (xG) Betting Model — soccer/football expected goals for match pricing
- NBA Win Probability & Live Betting Model — real-time win probability for in-play trading
- MLB Run Expectancy & Markov Chains — base-out state transitions and run scoring models
Agent Intelligence & ML
- Multi-Armed Bandits for Betting Agents — exploration vs. exploitation in market selection
- Game Theory for Prediction Market Agents — Nash equilibrium, mechanism design, and strategic trading
- Reinforcement Learning for Bet Timing — Q-learning and policy optimization for trade execution
- Feature Engineering for Sports Prediction — building predictive features from raw data
- Arbitrage Detection Algorithms — finding and capturing cross-platform arbitrage
- Odds API Edge Detection Pipeline — end-to-end pipeline from odds ingestion to edge extraction
Applied Topics
- Political Prediction Market Modeling — election forecasting and political event pricing
- Crypto & DeFi Prediction Market Math — on-chain market mechanics and DeFi-native models
- World Cup 2026 Betting Math — tournament-specific models, group stage probabilities, and knockout simulations
Reference
- Probability Distributions Cheat Sheet — every distribution a betting agent needs
- Python Libraries for Quantitative Betting — numpy, scipy, pandas, statsmodels, and more
- Betting Math Glossary — 200+ mathematical and betting terms defined
The Stack
- The Agent Betting Stack Explained — the four-layer architecture powering autonomous agents
- Agent Intelligence Guide — LLM analysis for prediction markets
- Best LLMs for Prediction Market Agents — model selection for research, execution, and hybrid agent architectures
- The Prediction Market Trading Layer — how agents execute trades across Polymarket CLOB, Kalshi REST, and DraftKings
- OSINT Intelligence Tools for Prediction Market Agents — open-source intelligence pipelines for autonomous trading
- The Kelly Criterion for Prediction Markets — optimal bet sizing math for agents
- Agent Betting Security — prompt injection defense, wallet exploits, and operational security
Casino Agents
- Casino Agent Infrastructure — the casino agent stack: identity, wallets, execution, and intelligence across crypto casinos, Telegram bots, and on-chain apps
- AI Poker Agents — from Libratus to LLM-powered bots: technical history and builder’s guide
- Casino Agent Platforms Compared — Realbet vs Telegram casinos vs on-chain protocols, ranked by agent accessibility
- Telegram Casino Bot Infrastructure — Bot API commands, Mini Apps, TON wallet integration, and agent access patterns
Agent Frameworks
- OpenClaw for Prediction Markets — composable skills architecture for autonomous betting agents
- Composable Agent Tools — skills, MCP servers, and modular agent architecture
- AI Betting Agent Platforms 2026 — every platform compared
OpenClaw Skills
Build custom skills for your OpenClaw agent — each guide includes a complete SKILL.md file, setup instructions, and integration with the Agent Betting Stack.
Getting Started
- Betting Stack Advisor — personalized agent setup wizard (start here)
Layer 1 — Identity
- Agent Reputation Tracker — portable agent identity and win-rate tracking
Layer 2 — Wallet
- Bankroll Manager — track P&L across platforms with SQLite
- Wallet Balance Checker — unified capital view across Coinbase, Polymarket, Kalshi
Layer 3 — Trading
- Odds Scanner — real-time odds from 20+ sportsbooks via The Odds API
- Vig Calculator — measure sportsbook juice and hold percentage
- Arb Finder — detect cross-market arbitrage opportunities
- Polymarket Monitor — track prediction market prices and volume
- Kalshi Tracker — monitor event contract prices and order books
- Cross-Market Pricer — normalize odds across platforms
- World Cup 2026 Odds — aggregate tournament betting lines
Layer 4 — Intelligence
- EV Calculator — expected value analysis for every bet
- Kelly Sizer — optimal bet sizing with Kelly Criterion
- CLV Tracker — measure your edge with closing line value
- Sharp Line Detector — follow the smart money
- News Sentiment Scanner — trade on breaking news
Utility
- Odds Converter — unified odds format for cross-platform agents
- Bet Slip Parser — extract structured data from any bet slip
Prop Bets
- Prop Bets Explained: The Complete Guide — what props are, every type explained, who sets the lines, parlay rules, history, and agent infrastructure
- DraftKings Prop Bets — market depth, SGP+, Flash Bets, vig analysis, and betting limits
- FanDuel Prop Bets — the book that invented Same Game Parlays, SGP+, and pricing transparency
- BetMGM Prop Bets — prop coverage, Lion’s Boosts, One Game Parlay, and cross-sport parlays
- Caesars Prop Bets — prop depth, Same Game Parlays, Caesars Rewards integration, and vig analysis
- bet365 Prop Bets — Bet Builder, live in-play props, and the deepest soccer prop menu available
- ESPN BET Prop Bets — ESPN integration, Quick Picks, and sport-by-sport prop coverage
- Fanatics Prop Bets — FanCash rewards, Same Game Parlays, and the fastest-growing US sportsbook
- Hard Rock Bet Prop Bets — Hard Rock Parlay, live props, and state-by-state availability
- BetRivers Prop Bets — iRush Pay, prop coverage, and regional market depth
- BetParx Prop Bets — Xclub rewards, regional prop coverage, and Kambi platform
- SuperBook Prop Bets — the Westgate Las Vegas book with 400+ Super Bowl props and the SuperContest
- Bovada Prop Bets — Prop Builder, crypto-friendly wagering, and UFC/MMA depth
- BetOnline Prop Bets — Props Builder, crypto payouts, and offshore prop coverage
- MyBookie Prop Bets — entertainment props, crypto betting, and prop coverage
- BetUS Prop Bets — prop coverage, crypto deposits, and offshore prop markets
- BookMaker Prop Bets — sharp-friendly props, winner tolerance, and the tightest offshore vig
- Pinnacle Prop Bets — the lowest vig in the industry, no winner limits, and the global fair-value benchmark
- WynnBET Prop Bets — Wynn Rewards integration, prop coverage, and state availability
Event Guides
- How to Bet on March Madness with an AI Agent — NCAA tournament betting automation
- How to Bet on the NBA Playoffs with an AI Agent — playoff series and prop markets
- How to Bet on the NFL Draft with an AI Agent — draft pick prediction markets
- How to Bet on the 2026 FIFA World Cup with an AI Agent — World Cup match and outright markets
- How to Use AI Agents for Super Bowl Betting — Super Bowl prop and game markets
- NBA vs NBL Talent Difference: Point Spread Analysis — data-driven breakdown of the talent gap and what it means for betting
API Guides
- Polymarket API Tutorial — CLOB API, order placement, WebSocket streams
- Kalshi API Tutorial — FIX Protocol, REST, WebSocket & Python SDK
- DraftKings Predictions Guide — Railbird Exchange, CFTC regulation, market types, and agent integration strategies
- Kalshi Fees Guide — taker/maker fee formulas, deposit costs, fee-adjusted edge math, and bot optimization
- Kalshi Legal States Tracker — state-by-state status, court rulings, federal bills, and agent compliance
- Kalshi Sports Contracts Guide — moneylines, spreads, props, combos, API examples, and odds conversion
- Polymarket Rate Limits Guide — 429 errors, headers, and retry strategies
- Prediction Market API Reference — unified reference across platforms
- py_clob_client Reference — every Polymarket Python SDK method
- py_clob_client create_order — order placement with OrderArgs, MarketOrderArgs, and batch orders
- py_clob_client get_order_book — fetch order book data, spread calculation, and batch methods
- py_clob_client get_balance_allowance — check USDC balance and token allowance
- py_clob_client get_positions — position tracking, P&L calculation, and Data API
- Unified API Comparison: Dome vs pmxt vs OddsPapi — abstraction layer trade-offs
- Polymarket US vs. Global API — authentication, SDKs, endpoints, and dual-stack agent pattern
- Polymarket US vs Offshore API Comparison — side-by-side: Polymarket Global, Polymarket US, Kalshi, and offshore sportsbook APIs
- Polymarket WebSocket & Orderbook Guide — all four channels, subscriptions, and orderbook reconstruction
- Polymarket Auth Troubleshooting — POLY headers, signatureType, funder, and error reference
- Polymarket TypeScript SDK Reference — @polymarket/clob-client methods with examples
- Polymarket Rust SDK Reference — Cargo setup, method reference, and error handling
- Polymarket Subgraph Guide — on-chain data, GraphQL queries, and Bitquery
- Polymarket Gamma API Deep Dive — market discovery, price history, and backtesting
Wallet & Identity
- Agent Wallet Comparison — Coinbase vs Safe vs MoonPay vs self-custody
- Best Agent Wallet for Prediction Markets — Coinbase vs Safe vs Lit vs Turnkey
- Coinbase Agentic Wallets Guide — complete developer guide
- Coinbase x402 Protocol — autonomous payments for AI agents
- Agentic Payments Protocols — x402, AP2, Stripe USDC, Visa, and the machine economy
- X Money and Prediction Markets — how Elon Musk’s super-app wallet changes agent payments
- MoonPay Agents vs Coinbase — fiat on-ramp comparison for agents
- Agent Wallet Security — spending limits and protection
- Agent Wallet Security Post-Mortems — lessons from Bybit, Trust Wallet, and LangChain
- Agent Wallet Legal Liability — who is responsible when AI trades?
- Moltbook Identity — agent identity on prediction markets
- Agent Identity Comparison — Moltbook vs SIWE vs ENS vs EAS
- Know Your Agent (KYA) — the identity verification standard for AI agents
- Multi-Identity Strategy — layering Moltbook, SIWE, EAS, ENS, and KYC
- On-Chain Reputation with EAS — verifiable track records using attestations on Base
- KYC & Compliance for Agents — regulatory identity requirements
Bot Selection & Marketplace
- Best Prediction Market Bots 2026 — complete rankings and reviews across all platforms
- Best Polymarket Bots 2026 — every trading bot ranked
- Best Kalshi Trading Bots 2026 — top agents for the regulated market
- Best Prediction Market Arbitrage Bots — cross-platform arbitrage agents
- Best Open-Source Prediction Market Bots — free and auditable trading agents
- Best Copy-Trading Agents — mirror top traders automatically
- Polymarket vs Kalshi for Bot Trading — API, pricing, and platform comparison
- How to Choose a Prediction Market Bot — evaluation framework for buyers
- Prediction Market Bot Pricing Models — subscription, revenue share, and one-time pricing
- How to Verify Bot Performance — separating real results from fake backtests
- The Prediction Market Agent Marketplace — buying, selling, and renting AI trading agents
- Revenue-Sharing Models for AI Prediction Agents — profit-split, high-water mark, hurdle rate, and hybrid structures
Building, Buying & Selling Agents
- Build a Prediction Market Agent — architecture and integration guide
- Build a Prediction Market Agent from Scratch — Python walkthrough with wallet integration and risk management
- Gnosis Prediction Market Agent Tooling (PMAT) — AgentMarket class, DeployableTraderAgent pattern, benchmarking, and Safe wallet integration
- How to Set Up a Trading Bot on Polymarket — step-by-step setup
- How to Set Up a Trading Bot on Kalshi — step-by-step setup
- Polymarket Trading Bot Quickstart — fastest path to a live bot
- Polymarket + Coinbase Quickstart — agentic wallet integration
- How to Buy an Arbitrage Bot for Polymarket — buyer’s checklist and scam avoidance
- How to Buy a Market-Making Bot for Kalshi — evaluation, API setup, and risk controls
- How to Rent a Copy-Trading Agent for Kalshi — find providers, connect via API, manage risk
- How to Rent a Sentiment Bot for Polymarket — connect wallet, configure signals, manage risk
- Sell Your Prediction Market Bot — listing and monetization strategies
- Buy a Prediction Market Agent — buyer’s guide to agent acquisition
- Agent Rental Business — how to build and scale an agent rental platform
- Legal Guide to Selling AI Agents — contracts, liability, and compliance
Arbitrage & Trading Strategy
- Cross-Market Arbitrage — sportsbooks vs prediction markets
- Sports Betting Arbitrage Bot — complete developer guide
- How to Automate Prediction Market Trading — end-to-end automation patterns
- Sports Betting vs. Prediction Markets — structural differences for agent builders
- Sportsbook-Prediction Market Convergence — where the two markets are merging
Sportsbook Guides
- Best Sportsbook by Sport — which book to use for NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, soccer, UFC, college football, tennis, boxing, and World Cup 2026
- Sportsbook Vig Comparison by Sport — full vig breakdown by sport and bet type across 16 sportsbooks
- Best Offshore Sportsbook by Use Case — crypto bettors, Canadians, live betting, parlays, esports, and college sports compared
- Offshore vs Legal Sportsbooks — odds, limits, tax, privacy, and when to use each
- Offshore Sportsbook Bonuses — rollover math, EV per $100, and clearing strategy
- Offshore Sportsbook Crypto Payouts — Bitcoin, USDT, Ethereum speed and fees across 5 books
- Is Offshore Betting Safe? — trust rankings, payout reliability, and red flags checklist
Terminology
- Betting Math Glossary — 200+ mathematical and betting terms with formulas
- Agent Betting Glossary — 130+ terms defined
- Prediction Market Terminology — 80+ terms
- Sportsbook Glossary — 300+ betting terms