The 2021 Masters returned to its traditional April date after the 2020 COVID postponement. Hideki Matsuyama delivered a historic victory at -10, becoming the first Japanese man to win a major championship. His win at +3500 closing odds continued the Masters pattern of mid-tier favorites finding the winner’s circle over the prohibitive favorite.
Defending champion Dustin Johnson entered as the clear favorite after his record-setting 2020 win but could manage only a tie for second place. The result reinforced one of the most reliable betting angles at Augusta: defending champions consistently underperform their pre-tournament odds.
Pre-Tournament Favorites (Closing Odds)
**Snapshot: April 8 (2021-04-08)** — 7 sportsbooks tracked| # | Player | Best Odds | Implied Prob | Best Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Thomas | +1100 | 8.3% | Intertops |
| 2 | Dustin Johnson | +1100 | 8.3% | BetOnline.ag |
| 3 | Bryson DeChambeau | +1150 | 8% | Betfair |
| 4 | Jordan Spieth | +1400 | 6.7% | Betfair |
| 5 | Jon Rahm | +1400 | 6.7% | BetOnline.ag |
| 6 | Rory McIlroy | +2000 | 4.8% | BetOnline.ag |
| 7 | Patrick Cantlay | +2300 | 4.2% | Betfair |
| 8 | Xander Schauffele | +2900 | 3.3% | Betfair |
| 9 | Brooks Koepka | +3100 | 3.1% | Betfair |
| 10 | Collin Morikawa | +3500 | 2.8% | Betfair |
| 11 | Patrick Reed | +3900 | 2.5% | Betfair |
| 12 | Cameron Smith | +4100 | 2.4% | Betfair |
| 13 | Viktor Hovland | +4500 | 2.2% | BetOnline.ag |
| 14 | Tony Finau | +4700 | 2.1% | Betfair |
| 15 | Daniel Berger | +4900 | 2% | Betfair |
The 2021 field featured a deep collection of favorites in the +800 to +1600 range, making it one of the more balanced Masters odds boards in recent years. No single player dominated the market.
Odds Movement: Opening to Close
**Opening:** April 1 (2021-04-01) → **Closing:** April 8 (2021-04-08)| Player | Opening Odds | Closing Odds | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | +900 | +1100 | ▼ Drifted |
| Justin Thomas | +1200 | +1100 | ▲ Shortened |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1250 | +1150 | ▲ Shortened |
| Jon Rahm | +1450 | +1400 | ▶ Steady |
| Jordan Spieth | +2000 | +1400 | ▲ Shortened |
| Rory McIlroy | +1850 | +2000 | ▶ Steady |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 | +2300 | ▶ Steady |
| Xander Schauffele | +2500 | +2900 | ▼ Drifted |
| Brooks Koepka | +3900 | +3100 | ▲ Shortened |
| Collin Morikawa | +3300 | +3500 | ▶ Steady |
| Patrick Reed | +3700 | +3900 | ▶ Steady |
| Cameron Smith | N/A | +4100 | ● New |
With only three snapshots captured for 2021 (April 1, 5, and 8), the movement data is less granular than subsequent years. The market was relatively stable in the final week, with most top players holding steady.
Vig Analysis by Snapshot
| Snapshot | Best Book | Best Vig | Grade | Worst Book | Worst Vig | Grade | Avg Overround | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | Betfair | 0.1% | A+ | Intertops | 1.03% | D- | 46% | 11 |
| April 5 | Betfair | 0.1% | A+ | Intertops | 1.01% | D- | 33.5% | 9 |
| April 8 | Betfair | 0.08% | A+ | LowVig.ag | 1.05% | D- | 72.3% | 7 |
Winner Analysis
Matsuyama closed between +3500 and +4500 across books — our April 8 best-price snapshot captured him as long as +6400 — and at the +3500 consensus his implied win probability was roughly 2.8%. His actual profile — elite ball-striker, strong Augusta course history (T5 in 2015, T7 in 2016), and improving putting — suggested he was undervalued by the market. His win extended a pattern: the 2016, 2017, and 2018 winners all closed outside the top five in pre-tournament pricing, and Matsuyama made it four such winners in seven years.
Will Zalatoris, in his Masters debut, nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets in tournament history, finishing just one stroke back. His performance validated the “elite young talent on debut” angle that bettors sometimes overlook in the Augusta data.
Key Takeaways for Bettors
- The defending champion discount is real. Johnson at around +800 was the clear favorite but couldn’t replicate his 2020 form. No player has won back-to-back Masters since Tiger Woods (2001-02), and only three players have ever repeated at Augusta. Through 2026, the streak holds — Scheffler won twice (2022, 2024) but never as defending champion.
- Course history is the strongest predictor at Augusta. Matsuyama had nine prior Masters starts with multiple top-10 finishes. The course familiarity advantage is more pronounced at Augusta than at any other major venue.
- The +2000 to +5000 range continues to deliver. Four of the seven Masters winners from 2015 to 2021 — Willett (+5000), García (+3000), Reed (+4000), and Matsuyama (+3500) — closed in this band, against zero wins for players priced shorter than +1400 in the same span outside the two favorite years (2015, 2020). Scheffler’s +2000 close in 2022 extended the pattern to five of eight, though the 2023–2025 editions all went to the favorite tier (Rahm +1725, Scheffler +500, McIlroy +725).
- Watch for debut performers. Zalatoris’s near-win at massive odds showed that Augusta rewards talent even without experience, if the player has the right skill set (elite iron play, distance off the tee).
Browse the full Masters Golf Odds hub for live odds, course analysis, and agent strategies. See also: 2020 Masters odds | 2022 Masters odds.