Rory McIlroy won the 2026 Masters by one shot over Scottie Scheffler, finishing at 12-under par (276) to become the fourth player in history to claim consecutive green jackets. His sixth major championship ties Nick Faldo for the most by a European player.
How It Happened
McIlroy entered the final round tied with Cameron Young at -11 after surrendering the largest 36-hole lead in Masters history on Moving Day. Sunday was no smoother. A double bogey on the 4th and a bogey on the 6th dropped him two behind both Young and Justin Rose, who had surged to -12 through the front nine. McIlroy answered with birdies around Amen Corner — the stretch of Augusta that tormented him for years — to retake the lead on the back nine. He carried a two-shot cushion to the 18th, drove into pine straw, bunker-scrambled to save bogey, and won by one.
Scheffler closed with a 68 to finish solo 2nd at -11, completing a remarkable weekend after being priced at +5,000 (2.0% implied) entering Saturday. Tyrrell Hatton fired a 66 — the low round of the day — to share 3rd with Rose, Young, and Russell Henley at -10.
The Odds Story
The AgentBets pipeline tracked McIlroy’s outright odds across 22 snapshots and 9 sportsbooks throughout the tournament. His implied probability arc captures one of the most volatile title runs in recent Masters history:
| Phase | Price | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-tournament | +1,025 | 8.9% |
| Post-Round 1 (67) | +235 | 29.9% |
| Post-Round 2 (65) | -303 | 75.2% |
| Post-Round 3 (73) | +152 | 39.7% |
| Final (71) | -714 | 87.7% |
He swung across a 78.8 percentage point range in four days — from 5th favorite to near-certainty to co-leader to champion. By comparison, Scheffler’s 2024 wire-to-wire Masters win barely moved from his opening +400 price. Our post-tournament analysis breaks down how the two arcs compare across three years of data.
Young’s Sunday Collapse
Cameron Young entered the final round as the co-leader and second favorite at +195 (33.9% implied) — but the market still gave McIlroy a 7.8 pp edge despite their identical leaderboard positions. That pedigree gap proved decisive: Young shot 73 (+1) on Sunday while McIlroy shot 71 (-1). The market’s assessment that major championship experience matters more than leaderboard position at Augusta was validated for the second time this week — Scheffler’s resume premium (priced above players closer on the leaderboard) also paid off as he charged into solo 2nd.
Final Leaderboard
| Pos | Player | Total | R4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rory McIlroy | -12 | 71 (-1) |
| 2 | Scottie Scheffler | -11 | 68 (-4) |
| T3 | Tyrrell Hatton | -10 | 66 (-6) |
| T3 | Justin Rose | -10 | — |
| T3 | Cameron Young | -10 | 73 (+1) |
| T3 | Russell Henley | -10 | 68 (-4) |
McIlroy joins Nicklaus, Faldo, and Tiger Woods as the only back-to-back Masters winners. He also held the lead or a share of it after every round — the fourth player in 40 years to do so at Augusta.
For the full tournament odds breakdown and three-year historical comparison, see our post-tournament analysis. For the complete round-by-round series: Round 1 · Round 2 · Round 3. For Masters outright odds, course data, and historical pricing, see the Masters Golf Odds & Betting Guide.