Rory McIlroy shot a 7-under 65 on Friday to build the largest 36-hole lead in Masters history. The defending champion stands at 12-under par, six shots clear of Patrick Reed and Sam Burns entering Moving Day — and his outright odds have settled at -250 across the board, implying a 71-73% win probability with 36 holes remaining.
The Round 2 Runaway
McIlroy birdied six of his final seven holes, including a chip-in on the par-4 17th that sent patrons into a frenzy. After a relatively quiet front nine, he caught fire on the back and pulled away from a crowded leaderboard that had been separated by just a few shots entering the day.
The odds pipeline tracked the separation in real time. At the 22:00 UTC mid-round snapshot — while McIlroy was still on the course — his price had already moved from +250 to +105 as books priced in the birdie run. By the post-round ingest at 06:00 UTC Saturday, every retail book had crossed to negative odds.
| Player | R2 Score | 36-Hole Total | Pre-R2 Odds | Post-R2 Odds | Implied Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 65 (-7) | -12 | +245 (29.0%) | -250 (73.5%) | +44.5 pp |
| Patrick Reed | — | -6 | +1,200 (7.7%) | +1,400 (6.7%) | -1.0 pp |
| Sam Burns | — | -6 | +1,000 (9.1%) | +1,800 (5.3%) | -3.8 pp |
| Tommy Fleetwood | — | — | +1,800 (5.3%) | +1,400 (6.7%) | +1.4 pp |
| Justin Rose | — | — | +1,200 (7.7%) | +1,600 (5.9%) | -1.8 pp |
| Cameron Young | — | — | +3,300 (2.9%) | +1,900 (5.0%) | +2.1 pp |
| Brooks Koepka | 69 (-3) | — | +3,300 (2.9%) | +4,000 (2.4%) | -0.5 pp |
| Scottie Scheffler | 74 (+2) | — | +333 (23.1%) | +5,000 (2.0%) | -21.1 pp |
The table tells a story that golf bettors will recognize: when one player runs away, the rest of the field’s implied probability compresses — not because they played badly, but because the leader absorbed most of the available win probability. Reed and Burns are still in second place but drifted slightly in implied terms because McIlroy’s 44.5 pp gain had to come from somewhere.
From +1,200 to -250 in 36 Holes
McIlroy’s two-round odds arc is extraordinary by any standard. Pre-tournament, Pinnacle — the sharpest book in the sample — had him fifth at +1,463 (6.4% implied), behind Scheffler, Rahm, DeChambeau, and Schauffele. Two rounds later, seven of eight retail books have him at -250, with Betfair exchange at -222.
| Snapshot | McIlroy Price | Implied % | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9 06 UTC | +1,200 | 7.7% | Pre-Round 1 (5th favorite) |
| Apr 9 22 UTC | +235 | 29.9% | Post-Round 1 (co-leader at -5) |
| Apr 10 22 UTC | +105 | 48.8% | Mid-Round 2 (birdie run in progress) |
| Apr 11 06 UTC | -303 | 75.2% | Post-Round 2 (initial market reaction) |
| Apr 11 14 UTC | -250 | 73.5% | Settled (books re-margined overnight) |
The slight pullback from -303 to -250 overnight is normal post-cut book behavior — the initial price overshot, and books re-margined to settle at a tighter consensus. If McIlroy wins, he becomes the fourth player to defend at Augusta, joining Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods.
Scheffler Finds Water, Loses 21 Points of Implied Probability
Scottie Scheffler’s 2-over 74 snapped a streak of 11 consecutive par-or-better rounds at Augusta — his first over-par Masters score since a 75 in the second round of 2023. The damage came on the back nine: he found water on both par 5s at the 13th and 15th, squandering any momentum from an earlier birdie run.
The market was unforgiving. Between the 14:00 UTC and 22:00 UTC snapshots on April 10 — the window covering his back nine — Scheffler’s price moved from +335 to +2,900 across every book simultaneously, a -19.7 pp intraday move. By Saturday morning, he’d settled at +5,000 (2.0% implied), dropping from 2nd favorite to 11th.
For context: Scheffler entered the week as the pre-tournament favorite for the third consecutive year. He has won the Masters twice (2022, 2024) and had never been outside the top 3 in odds during tournament week in any of our 2026 Masters snapshots.
The Cut: 38 Players Gone, DeChambeau Among Them
The cut fell at 4-over par, removing 38 of the 92 players tracked in the pipeline. The most notable casualty was Bryson DeChambeau, who entered as Pinnacle’s third pre-tournament favorite at +1,362 (6.8% implied). DeChambeau appeared to have the cut safely in hand at 3-over through 15, but a triple bogey from a greenside bunker on the 18th — his second catastrophic bunker hole of the week after tripling the 11th in Round 1 — sent him home two shots outside the line.
Other notable missed cuts: Cameron Smith, Robert MacIntyre, Min Woo Lee, Nicolai Hojgaard, and eight former champions playing on past-champion exemptions (Couples, Willett, Watson, Olazábal, Cabrera, Singh, Weir, Zach Johnson).
Jon Rahm made the cut but only on the number. After his birdie-less 78 in Round 1, he shot a steadier 70 on Friday to sneak in at 4-over. The market doesn’t care — he sits at +50,000 (0.2% implied), effectively eliminated.
Who’s Still Alive: The Round 3 Contender Board
The market has 25 players above 0.2% implied entering Moving Day, but the realistic contender group is small:
| Rank | Player | Post-R2 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rory McIlroy | -250 | 73.5% |
| 2 | Tommy Fleetwood | +1,400 | 6.7% |
| 3 | Patrick Reed | +1,400 | 6.7% |
| 4 | Justin Rose | +1,600 | 5.9% |
| 5 | Sam Burns | +1,800 | 5.3% |
| 6 | Cameron Young | +1,900 | 5.0% |
| 7 | Shane Lowry | +2,800 | 3.4% |
| 8 | Jason Day | +4,000 | 2.4% |
| 9 | Brooks Koepka | +4,000 | 2.4% |
| 10 | Xander Schauffele | +4,000 | 2.4% |
| 11 | Scottie Scheffler | +5,000 | 2.0% |
The gap between McIlroy and the field is stark — his 73.5% implied probability is more than 10x the next-closest player. Fleetwood had a brief mid-round spike to +525 (16% implied) during his own strong Round 2 stretch, but settled back as McIlroy’s birdie run rendered everyone else’s gains marginal.
Vig Check: DraftKings and BetMGM Hit Grade A
Post-cut vig grades shifted meaningfully. With the field trimmed from 91 outcomes to roughly 50, the best books tightened up while Kambi-powered books went the other direction.
| Book | Outcomes | Normalized Vig | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 54 | 0.30% | A |
| BetMGM | 54 | 0.31% | A |
| FanDuel | 49 | 0.36% | B+ |
| TAB | 54 | 0.43% | B+ |
| SportsBet | 49 | 0.47% | B |
| Unibet | 27 | 0.83% | D |
| BetRivers | 27 | 0.92% | D- |
| Everygame | 17 | 1.15% | F |
DraftKings and BetMGM each price 54 outcomes at Grade A efficiency — the tightest vig in any 2026 Masters snapshot. At the other end, Unibet and BetRivers aggressively culled to just 27 outcomes (roughly the top half of made-cut players), inflating their normalized vig to D-grade territory. As covered in our Round 1 recap, this is a mechanical artifact of cutting the board without re-margining — it reflects Kambi’s risk appetite, not pricing quality.
Everygame went furthest, trimming to 17 contender-only outcomes. Their F-grade normalized vig (1.15%) is misleading in isolation — their absolute overround of 19.53% is actually the second-lowest among retail books.
Price Shopping for Moving Day
For bettors looking to back McIlroy, Betfair exchange at -222 is the best available price. Seven retail books sit at -250, with BetRivers slightly shorter at -275 and Everygame at -278 — a 2-4% implied gap on the same outcome.
For the field, Betfair exchange consistently offers the longest prices: Fleetwood at +2,100 vs. +1,400-1,800 retail, Reed at +2,100 vs. +1,400-1,800 retail. That exchange premium is typical when a dominant favorite compresses the outright board — exchange bettors price the field more generously because they’re essentially betting against McIlroy rather than for any specific chaser.
For complete Masters outright odds, course analysis, and historical pricing, see our Masters Golf Odds & Betting Guide. For the Round 1 odds story — including how McIlroy went from fifth favorite to dominant frontrunner in a single afternoon — see our Round 1 recap. For methodology on sportsbook efficiency grading, see the Vig Index.