The 2022 Masters belonged to Scottie Scheffler in the most dominant breakout season the PGA Tour had seen in years. Scheffler arrived at Augusta having won three of his previous five starts, rising from outside the top 10 in world rankings to No. 1 in a matter of weeks. His -10 victory was never in serious doubt after he built a five-stroke lead through 54 holes.
For bettors, 2022 was a masterclass in riding momentum. Scheffler’s odds shortened from +2500 in January to +1400 at close — a massive move that still represented value given his form trajectory. The pre-tournament favorite, Jon Rahm at +900, finished a disappointing T27.
Pre-Tournament Favorites (Closing Odds)
**Snapshot: April 7 (2022-04-07)** — 15 sportsbooks tracked| # | Player | Best Odds | Implied Prob | Best Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Rahm | +1200 | 7.7% | FanDuel |
| 2 | Justin Thomas | +1300 | 7.1% | FanDuel |
| 3 | Cameron Smith | +1650 | 5.7% | Betfair |
| 4 | Dustin Johnson | +1800 | 5.3% | BetOnline.ag |
| 5 | Scottie Scheffler 🏆 | +2000 | 4.8% | BetOnline.ag |
| 6 | Rory McIlroy | +2200 | 4.3% | Bovada |
| 7 | Brooks Koepka | +2300 | 4.2% | Betfair |
| 8 | Patrick Cantlay | +2600 | 3.7% | Betfair |
| 9 | Xander Schauffele | +2700 | 3.6% | Betfair |
| 10 | Jordan Spieth | +2800 | 3.4% | Betfair |
| 11 | Viktor Hovland | +2900 | 3.3% | Betfair |
| 12 | Collin Morikawa | +2900 | 3.3% | Betfair |
| 13 | Will Zalatoris | +4700 | 2.1% | Betfair |
| 14 | Shane Lowry | +4700 | 2.1% | Betfair |
| 15 | Sam Burns | +5000 | 2% | DraftKings |
The closing odds market in 2022 featured an unusually flat top of the board, with no single dominant favorite. Rahm and Scheffler shared the top tier, followed by a cluster of players between +1400 and +2500.
Odds Movement: Opening to Close
**Opening:** January 15 (2022-01-15) → **Closing:** April 7 (2022-04-07)| Player | Opening Odds | Closing Odds | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +1000 | +1200 | ▼ Drifted |
| Justin Thomas | +1800 | +1300 | ▲ Shortened |
| Cameron Smith | +2900 | +1650 | ▲ Shortened |
| Dustin Johnson | +1800 | +1800 | ▶ Steady |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 | N/A | ● New |
| Scottie Scheffler 🏆 | N/A | +2000 | ● New |
| Rory McIlroy | +1750 | +2200 | ▼ Drifted |
| Brooks Koepka | +2000 | +2300 | ▼ Drifted |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2300 | +2600 | ▶ Steady |
| Xander Schauffele | +2400 | +2700 | ▶ Steady |
| Jordan Spieth | +1450 | +2800 | ▼ Drifted |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 | +2900 | ▼ Drifted |
Scheffler’s movement from +2500 to +1400 was the story of the 2022 market. His four-win run through February and March forced sportsbooks to continuously reprice him. Bettors who took his January odds captured significant closing line value.
Vig Analysis by Snapshot
| Snapshot | Best Book | Best Vig | Grade | Worst Book | Worst Vig | Grade | Avg Overround | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 15 | Betfair | 0.34% | A | DraftKings | 0.89% | D | 53% | 12 |
| February 15 | Betfair | 0.52% | B | Intertops | 0.88% | D | 61.8% | 12 |
| March 1 | LowVig.ag | 0.46% | B | Betfair | 1.36% | F | 69.1% | 12 |
| March 15 | LowVig.ag | 0.47% | B | Betfair | 2.12% | F | 79.1% | 11 |
| April 1 | Betfair | 0.07% | A+ | FOX Bet | 1.58% | F | 59.7% | 12 |
| April 5 | Betfair | 0.06% | A+ | William Hill (US) | 0.57% | C+ | 38.7% | 14 |
| April 7 | Betfair | 0.06% | A+ | FOX Bet | 47.85% | F | 373.1% | 15 |
The 2022 Masters had strong sportsbook coverage across all snapshots. The gap between best and worst vig widened closer to the tournament as regulated US books increased their margins for the higher-volume event.
Winner Analysis
Scheffler at +1400 closing implied roughly a 6.7% win probability. Given his form (4 wins in 6 starts, No. 1 world ranking, elite strokes gained across all categories), his true probability was arguably double that. Even at the shortened closing price, Scheffler represented one of the better value plays in recent Masters history — a case where the market moved in the right direction but not far enough.
Rory McIlroy’s runner-up finish at +1200 continued his trend of strong Augusta results without the win. His career Grand Slam pursuit added sentimental value to his odds but his actual probability of winning was roughly in line with his closing price.
Key Takeaways for Bettors
- Momentum matters more at Augusta than any other major. Scheffler’s four-win stretch was the strongest lead-in to a Masters victory since Tiger Woods in the early 2000s. Form in the 6-8 weeks before Augusta is the highest-signal input.
- The market underreacts to hot streaks. Scheffler shortened from +2500 to +1400, but his true probability based on form warranted odds closer to +500. Markets anchored to season-long priors are slow to price in recent dominance.
- Pre-tournament favorites at the Masters are fools’ gold. Rahm at +900 was the favorite and finished T27. Since 2005, only two pre-tournament favorites have won the Masters.
- The +1000 to +2000 range was the sweet spot. Scheffler at +1400 and McIlroy at +1200 — the two players who dueled for the green jacket — both sat in this range. It’s the most EV-rich tier at Augusta.
Browse the full Masters Golf Odds hub for live odds, course analysis, and agent strategies. See also: 2021 Masters odds | 2023 Masters odds.