The 2020 Masters was unlike any in the tournament’s 86-year history. Postponed from April to November due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was played without patrons for the first time, with autumn conditions replacing the traditional spring setting. Dustin Johnson delivered a historic performance, finishing at -20 (268) to set the 72-hole scoring record and win by five strokes.
For bettors, the 2020 Masters was a lesson in form-based handicapping. Johnson entered the tournament in the best form of his career — winning the Northern Trust and finishing runner-up at the PGA Championship — and the market reflected this with a significant odds shortening from his opening price.
Pre-Tournament Favorites (Closing Odds)
**Snapshot: November 12 (2020-11-12)** — 3 sportsbooks tracked| # | Player | Best Odds | Implied Prob | Best Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryson Dechambeau | +800 | 11.1% | FanDuel |
| 2 | Dustin Johnson 🏆 | +850 | 10.5% | BetOnline.ag |
| 3 | Jon Rahm | +1000 | 9.1% | BetOnline.ag |
| 4 | Justin Thomas | +1200 | 7.7% | BetOnline.ag |
| 5 | Rory McIlroy | +1300 | 7.1% | FanDuel |
| 6 | Brooks Koepka | +1600 | 5.9% | BetOnline.ag |
| 7 | Xander Schauffele | +1600 | 5.9% | BetOnline.ag |
| 8 | Patrick Cantlay | +2500 | 3.8% | BetOnline.ag |
| 9 | Hideki Matsuyama | +2800 | 3.4% | BetOnline.ag |
| 10 | Bubba Watson | +3000 | 3.2% | BetOnline.ag |
| 11 | Patrick Reed | +3000 | 3.2% | BetOnline.ag |
| 12 | Tony Finau | +3000 | 3.2% | FanDuel |
| 13 | Tyrrell Hatton | +3300 | 2.9% | BetOnline.ag |
| 14 | Collin Morikawa | +3500 | 2.8% | BetOnline.ag |
| 15 | Jason Day | +4000 | 2.4% | BetOnline.ag |
Johnson’s closing odds of +850 represented a significant shortening from his +1800 opening price, one of the biggest pre-tournament moves in the 2020 field. McIlroy, the early favorite, drifted as his form dipped through the fall.
Odds Movement: Opening to Close
**Opening:** August 1 (2020-08-01) → **Closing:** November 12 (2020-11-12)| Player | Opening Odds | Closing Odds | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson Dechambeau | +1200 | +800 | ▲ Shortened |
| Dustin Johnson 🏆 | +1800 | +850 | ▲ Shortened |
| Jon Rahm | +1200 | +1000 | ▲ Shortened |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 | +1200 | ▲ Shortened |
| Rory McIlroy | +750 | +1300 | ▼ Drifted |
| Tiger Woods | +1400 | N/A | ● New |
| Brooks Koepka | +1600 | +1600 | ▶ Steady |
| Xander Schauffele | +2500 | +1600 | ▲ Shortened |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 | +2500 | ▶ Steady |
| Jordan Spieth | +2800 | N/A | ● New |
| Justin Rose | +2800 | N/A | ● New |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +4000 | +2800 | ▲ Shortened |
The biggest movers in 2020 were driven by form in the fall season. Bryson DeChambeau’s transformation into a power hitter after his U.S. Open win shortened his Masters odds substantially. Tiger Woods, the defending champion, drifted as his back issues limited his competitive schedule.
Vig Analysis by Snapshot
| Snapshot | Best Book | Best Vig | Grade | Worst Book | Worst Vig | Grade | Avg Overround | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 1 | Unibet | 0.42% | B+ | BetOnline.ag | 0.78% | D | 50.2% | 8 |
| September 1 | Unibet | 0.49% | B | Intertops | 0.81% | D | 53.8% | 8 |
| October 1 | Bovada | 0.47% | B | Intertops | 0.86% | D | 46.4% | 6 |
| October 15 | Bovada | 0.46% | B | Intertops | 0.91% | D- | 45.3% | 5 |
| November 1 | LowVig.ag | 0.32% | A | Bovada | 0.52% | B | 32.4% | 4 |
| November 5 | FanDuel | 0.46% | B | BetOnline.ag | 3.95% | F | 193.9% | 5 |
| November 10 | LowVig.ag | 3.17% | F | BetOnline.ag | 3.17% | F | 580.7% | 2 |
| November 12 | FanDuel | 0.44% | B+ | LowVig.ag | 3.28% | F | 406.5% | 3 |
The 2020 Masters odds market had limited sportsbook coverage in early snapshots, with book count increasing as the rescheduled tournament date approached. Lower book competition in the early months meant less favorable odds for bettors.
Winner Analysis
Dustin Johnson’s closing odds of +850 implied roughly a 10.5% win probability. His actual performance — a wire-to-wire victory with the lowest score in tournament history — represented massive value even at his shortened closing price. Johnson was a textbook case of a player whose current form (multiple wins, elite strokes gained metrics) was slightly underpriced by markets anchored to longer-term priors.
Key Takeaways for Bettors
- COVID schedule disruption created unique market dynamics. The fall timing meant players’ recent form was on different courses and in different conditions than a typical Masters lead-in. Models trained on spring form data were less reliable.
- Johnson’s +1800 → +850 movement was the signal. Sharp money identified his form trajectory months before the tournament. Early bettors captured significant closing line value.
- The defending champion trap. Tiger Woods at +1400 opening attracted heavy recreational handle but finished T38. Defending champion status adds a premium to odds that rarely corresponds to actual win probability.
- No spectators may have neutralized home-crowd advantages. Players who typically feed off Augusta energy (Mickelson, Spieth) underperformed relative to their odds.
Browse the full Masters Golf Odds hub for live odds, course analysis, and agent strategies, or continue to the 2021 Masters odds.