The 2024 Masters saw Scottie Scheffler cement his status as the dominant force in golf with his second green jacket in three years. Entering as the clear +500 favorite after a dominant spring stretch, Scheffler delivered a wire-to-front performance to win at -11 by four strokes over Masters debutant Ludvig Aberg.
For the second consecutive year, the pre-tournament favorite won the Masters — an occurrence so rare in historical data that it challenged one of the strongest betting angles at Augusta. Scheffler’s dominance was so complete that his closing price of +500 actually offered value relative to his true win probability.
Pre-Tournament Favorites (Closing Odds)
**Snapshot: April 11 (2024-04-11)** — 7 sportsbooks tracked| # | Player | Best Odds | Implied Prob | Best Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler 🏆 | +500 | 16.7% | BetMGM |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy | +1100 | 8.3% | BetMGM |
| 3 | Jon Rahm | +1300 | 7.1% | ESPN BET |
| 4 | Xander Schauffele | +1500 | 6.3% | ESPN BET |
| 5 | Brooks Koepka | +2000 | 4.8% | FanDuel |
| 6 | Hideki Matsuyama | +2000 | 4.8% | Unibet |
| 7 | Jordan Spieth | +2500 | 3.8% | DraftKings |
| 8 | Joaquin Niemann | +2800 | 3.4% | BetMGM |
| 9 | Ludvig Aberg | +3300 | 2.9% | FanDuel |
| 10 | Bryson DeChambeau | +3500 | 2.8% | Unibet |
| 11 | Matthew Fitzpatrick | +4000 | 2.4% | DraftKings |
| 12 | Viktor Hovland | +4000 | 2.4% | SuperBook |
| 13 | Wyndham Clark | +4000 | 2.4% | FanDuel |
| 14 | Dustin Johnson | +4500 | 2.2% | Unibet |
| 15 | Tony Finau | +4500 | 2.2% | FanDuel |
The 2024 market was the most top-heavy in recent memory, with Scheffler’s +500 representing the shortest pre-tournament favorite price since Tiger Woods in the mid-2000s. The gap between Scheffler and the next tier (McIlroy/Rahm at +1100-1300) was historically wide.
Odds Movement: Opening to Close
**Opening:** January 15 (2024-01-15) → **Closing:** April 11 (2024-04-11)| Player | Opening Odds | Closing Odds | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler 🏆 | +900 | +500 | ▲ Shortened |
| Rory McIlroy | +900 | +1100 | ▼ Drifted |
| Jon Rahm | +1000 | +1300 | ▼ Drifted |
| Xander Schauffele | +2800 | +1500 | ▲ Shortened |
| Brooks Koepka | +2000 | +2000 | ▶ Steady |
| Hideki Matsuyama | N/A | +2000 | ● New |
| Cameron Smith | +2200 | N/A | ● New |
| Jordan Spieth | +2000 | +2500 | ▼ Drifted |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 | N/A | ● New |
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 | N/A | ● New |
| Joaquin Niemann | N/A | +2800 | ● New |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2800 | +3300 | ▼ Drifted |
Scheffler’s move from +900 in January to +500 at close was the defining market movement of the 2024 Masters cycle. His spring form — including wins at the Players Championship and a WGC event — forced continuous repricing. Xander Schauffele also shortened significantly (+2800 to +1500) on strong early-season results.
Vig Analysis by Snapshot
| Snapshot | Best Book | Best Vig | Grade | Worst Book | Worst Vig | Grade | Avg Overround | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 15 | SuperBook | 0.44% | B+ | Caesars | 0.9% | D- | 52% | 8 |
| February 15 | SuperBook | 0.46% | B | Caesars | 1.01% | D- | 55.2% | 8 |
| March 1 | BetOnline.ag | 0.39% | B+ | BetMGM | 0.82% | D | 52.2% | 8 |
| March 15 | BetOnline.ag | 0.38% | B+ | Caesars | 0.84% | D | 50.8% | 9 |
| April 1 | SuperBook | 0.41% | B+ | Caesars | 0.82% | D | 51.1% | 7 |
| April 8 | SuperBook | 0.41% | B+ | BetMGM | 0.57% | C+ | 43.2% | 5 |
| April 11 | FanDuel | 0.34% | A | BetRivers | 0.54% | B | 38.7% | 7 |
Vig compression was notable in the final snapshots as more books competed for Masters handle. The best available vig on closing day (FanDuel at 0.34%, grade A) was significantly better than the January pricing, suggesting that competitive pressure drove better odds for bettors as the tournament approached.
Winner Analysis
Scheffler at +500 closing implied a 16.7% win probability. In a ~90-player field with the condensed talent of a Masters, a 16.7% implied probability for the No. 1 player in the world was arguable fair-to-underpriced. His actual dominance — four-stroke victory, never seriously challenged — suggests his true probability was north of 20%.
The Ludvig Aberg story was the secondary narrative. In his Masters debut, the 24-year-old Swede finished runner-up at +3300 closing odds, validating the “elite young talent” angle that occasionally produces surprise results at Augusta. His performance put him on the short list of future Masters favorites.
Key Takeaways for Bettors
- Back-to-back favorite wins broke the historical pattern. Rahm (2023) and Scheffler (2024) winning as favorites was unprecedented in the modern data. When a player is truly dominant (No. 1 ranking, multiple recent wins, elite Augusta fit), the “favorites don’t win the Masters” angle doesn’t apply.
- Scheffler at +500 was still value. The market underpriced him even at the shortest Masters favorite price in two decades. When form, talent, and course fit align at this level, the typical Masters variance gets compressed.
- First-timers can contend. Aberg’s runner-up debut echoed Zalatoris in 2021. Young players with elite ball-striking and length can overcome the Augusta experience gap.
- The +900 → +500 movement created a CLV opportunity. Early bettors who took Scheffler at +900 in January captured nearly double the implied probability of those who bet closing odds. Pre-season Masters futures remain an underexploited edge.
Browse the full Masters Golf Odds hub for live odds, course analysis, and agent strategies. See also: 2023 Masters odds | 2025 Masters odds.