The 2023 Masters was a Sunday stunner. Jon Rahm entered the final round four shots back and fired a bogey-free 65 — the low round of the day — to win at -12 by four strokes. It was one of the great final-round comebacks in Masters history and represented a rare case of the pre-tournament co-favorite actually winning.
Rahm’s victory broke a long drought of pre-tournament favorites failing at Augusta. At +900, he was priced as a co-favorite with defending champion Scottie Scheffler. The result validated models that weighted Rahm’s elite all-around game — top-5 in strokes gained off the tee, approach, and putting — as the ideal Augusta profile.
Pre-Tournament Favorites (Closing Odds)
**Snapshot: April 6 (2023-04-06)** — 10 sportsbooks tracked| # | Player | Best Odds | Implied Prob | Best Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | +1525 | 6.2% | MyBookie.ag |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy | +1525 | 6.2% | MyBookie.ag |
| 3 | Jon Rahm 🏆 | +1725 | 5.5% | MyBookie.ag |
| 4 | Jordan Spieth | +2200 | 4.3% | MyBookie.ag |
| 5 | Patrick Cantlay | +2700 | 3.6% | MyBookie.ag |
| 6 | Justin Thomas | +2800 | 3.4% | MyBookie.ag |
| 7 | Cameron Smith | +2800 | 3.4% | DraftKings |
| 8 | Tony Finau | +3100 | 3.1% | MyBookie.ag |
| 9 | Xander Schauffele | +3100 | 3.1% | MyBookie.ag |
| 10 | Collin Morikawa | +3200 | 3% | MyBookie.ag |
| 11 | Dustin Johnson | +3300 | 2.9% | MyBookie.ag |
| 12 | Max Homa | +3400 | 2.9% | FanDuel |
| 13 | Jason Day | +3500 | 2.8% | MyBookie.ag |
| 14 | Cameron Young | +3500 | 2.8% | LowVig.ag |
| 15 | Brooks Koepka | +4400 | 2.2% | FanDuel |
The 2023 market featured a clear top tier (Rahm, Scheffler at +900) separated by a significant gap from the next group (McIlroy, Koepka at +1400-1600). This structure made the top of the board unusually predictive.
Odds Movement: Opening to Close
**Opening:** January 15 (2023-01-15) → **Closing:** April 6 (2023-04-06)| Player | Opening Odds | Closing Odds | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +1000 | +1525 | ▼ Drifted |
| Scottie Scheffler | +1500 | +1525 | ▶ Steady |
| Jon Rahm 🏆 | +1100 | +1725 | ▼ Drifted |
| Jordan Spieth | +2500 | +2200 | ▲ Shortened |
| Will Zalatoris | +2300 | N/A | ● New |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 | +2700 | ▶ Steady |
| Cameron Smith | +1600 | +2800 | ▼ Drifted |
| Justin Thomas | +1800 | +2800 | ▼ Drifted |
| Viktor Hovland | +3000 | N/A | ● New |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +3000 | N/A | ● New |
| Xander Schauffele | +2600 | +3100 | ▼ Drifted |
| Tony Finau | +2900 | +3100 | ▶ Steady |
The 2023 market was remarkably stable. Rahm held at +900 from January through closing, an unusual outcome that suggests the market correctly identified his probability early and didn’t need to adjust. Scheffler showed slight shortening as the defending champion narrative attracted handle.
Vig Analysis by Snapshot
| Snapshot | Best Book | Best Vig | Grade | Worst Book | Worst Vig | Grade | Avg Overround | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 15 | SuperBook | 0.37% | B+ | Betfair | 1.41% | F | 56.2% | 14 |
| February 15 | SuperBook | 0.35% | B+ | DraftKings | 0.83% | D | 56.5% | 13 |
| March 1 | SuperBook | 0.35% | B+ | William Hill (US) | 0.78% | D | 56.3% | 13 |
| March 15 | LowVig.ag | 0.54% | B | William Hill (US) | 0.8% | D | 59.1% | 12 |
| April 1 | LowVig.ag | 0.34% | A | William Hill (US) | 0.82% | D | 48.7% | 13 |
| April 4 | SuperBook | 0.36% | B+ | MyBookie.ag | 12.57% | F | 190.6% | 11 |
| April 6 | SuperBook | 0.35% | B+ | MyBookie.ag | 10.89% | F | 736.6% | 10 |
The 2023 Masters had the deepest sportsbook coverage in our dataset, with more books tracked per snapshot. Competition between books kept vig more competitive, particularly in the weeks leading up to the tournament.
Winner Analysis
Rahm at +900 closing implied an 10% win probability. His actual profile — No. 1 in the world, elite across all strokes gained categories, strong Augusta history (T7 in 2020, T27 in 2022 after illness) — arguably warranted a higher true probability. The co-favorite pricing with Scheffler may have slightly suppressed Rahm’s individual implied probability, creating a subtle edge.
The final-round comeback from four back was a reminder that 72-hole events are not decided after 54 holes. In-play bettors who recognized Rahm’s closing ability and the Sunday pin positions favoring aggressive play could have captured significant value on live odds.
Key Takeaways for Bettors
- Favorites can win — but it’s rare. Rahm’s win was only the third time since 2005 that a pre-tournament favorite won the Masters. The +900 price was fair-to-slightly-favorable, not a bad bet, but not the value sweet spot either.
- Sunday comebacks at Augusta are more common than the market prices. The course’s reachable par 5s and dangerous pin positions allow aggressive players to make up multiple shots quickly. In-play models should account for this.
- Stable odds ≠ no edge. Rahm’s +900 held from January to April, but his form continued to improve over that period. The market priced him correctly early but didn’t reprice him higher as his form peaked — a subtle value pocket.
- Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson both finished T2 at long odds (+2000 and +10000+), reinforcing that Augusta rewards experience and major championship pedigree regardless of recent form.
Browse the full Masters Golf Odds hub for live odds, course analysis, and agent strategies. See also: 2022 Masters odds | 2024 Masters odds.