Overview
PolyClaw is an OpenClaw skill that bridges the intelligence and trading layers for Polymarket. It provides not just order execution but also LLM-powered hedge discovery using contrapositive logic — finding correlated markets where mispricing can be exploited through simultaneous positions.
Key Features
Order execution — Place trades on Polymarket directly from your OpenClaw agent’s skill system.
Hedge discovery — Uses LLM reasoning to identify logically related markets where hedging opportunities exist. For example, if market A (policy X passes) and market B (consequence of policy X) are mispriced relative to each other, PolyClaw identifies the arbitrage.
Contrapositive logic — Applies formal logic to find implied relationships between markets that the broader market may not have priced correctly.
OpenClaw native — Installs as a standard OpenClaw skill, inheriting memory, heartbeat, and authentication from the framework.
How Contrapositive Logic Works
Traditional arbitrage looks for the same event priced differently on two platforms. PolyClaw goes further by finding logically implied relationships between different markets on the same platform.
Example: if Polymarket has a market “Will the US ban TikTok by July 2026?” at 35% YES, and a separate market “Will TikTok’s US daily users drop below 50M by August 2026?” at 15% YES, there’s a logical dependency. If TikTok gets banned, user numbers will almost certainly drop. If the ban probability is 35% but the user-drop probability is only 15%, the user-drop market may be underpriced relative to the ban market.
PolyClaw’s LLM evaluates these relationships, estimates conditional probabilities, and flags exploitable mispricings. The agent can then take simultaneous positions in both markets to capture the spread.
Integration Example
# PolyClaw is installed as an OpenClaw skill
# In your agent's skill configuration:
{
"skills": [
{
"name": "polyclaw",
"config": {
"polymarket_api_key": "${POLYMARKET_API_KEY}",
"wallet_private_key": "${WALLET_KEY}",
"max_position_size_usdc": 50,
"min_edge_threshold": 0.05
}
}
]
}
Once installed, the skill responds to natural language commands in the agent’s heartbeat cycle: “scan for hedge opportunities in politics markets” or “check my open Polymarket positions.”
Agent-Friendliness
| Aspect | Rating |
|---|---|
| Integration | Native OpenClaw skill — install and use |
| Analysis | Built-in LLM-powered hedge discovery |
| Execution | Direct Polymarket order placement |
| Setup | Requires OpenClaw gateway running |
| LLM costs | Moderate — analysis calls per scan cycle |
Pricing
Free and open source. Requires LLM API costs for the analysis component (typically $0.01-$0.10 per market scan depending on model used).
Best For
OpenClaw-based agents that want integrated Polymarket analysis and trading without building custom integrations. Particularly useful for agents pursuing multi-market hedging strategies where logical relationships between markets create arbitrage opportunities.