Risk-Management
A Polymarket Account Created Days Before the Maduro Raid Turned $32K Into $436K. Now Washington Wants Answers.
A newly created Polymarket account turned roughly $32,000 into $436,000 by betting on Maduro's removal — days before a nighttime raid was announced. Combined with a suspicious Iran ceasefire odds spike, the pattern has regulators and lawmakers targeting prediction market insider trading for the first time.
Read → Layer 2 — WalletBuild an OpenClaw Bankroll Manager Skill — Track P&L Across Platforms
Build a custom OpenClaw skill that tracks bankroll across sportsbooks, Polymarket, and Kalshi. Log bets, calculate ROI, enforce risk limits, and generate daily P&L snapshots — all from a local SQLite database.
Read → Layer 2 — WalletCorrelation and Portfolio Theory for Multi-Market Agents: Markowitz Optimization for Betting Portfolios
How autonomous agents apply Markowitz mean-variance optimization to prediction market and sports betting portfolios. Build covariance matrices, compute efficient frontiers, and set position limits based on correlation structure.
Read → Layer 2 — WalletDrawdown Math: Understanding and Surviving Variance
The mathematics of losing streaks, expected maximum drawdown, gambler's ruin probability, and stop-loss thresholds for autonomous betting agents.
Read → Layer 4 — IntelligenceMonte Carlo Simulation for Prediction Market Position Sizing
How to use Monte Carlo methods to simulate thousands of outcome scenarios, stress-test Kelly sizing under model uncertainty, and set position limits for autonomous prediction market agents.
Read → Layer 4 — IntelligenceThe Kelly Criterion: Optimal Bet Sizing for Autonomous Agents
Full mathematical derivation of the Kelly Criterion for optimal bet sizing, fractional Kelly variants, simultaneous Kelly for multiple bets, and Python implementation for autonomous betting agents.
Read →Kalshi's Death Carveout Broke the Contract Between Platform and Trader. Here's What Agent Builders Need to Learn From It.
Kalshi's $54M Khamenei market exposed a critical risk for automated trading: resolution rules can contradict trader expectations in ways that destroy bot profitability. We break down what happened, why it matters for agent architecture, and how to build resolution risk into your trading logic.
Read → All LayersLegal & Liability Guide for Agent Wallets: Who Is Responsible When AI Trades?
Legal liability framework for autonomous AI trading agents on prediction markets. Covers UETA, CFTC jurisdiction, EU AI Act, KYC/AML, principal-agent doctrine, and risk mitigation for builders operating agent wallets.
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