Probability
Bayesian Updating for Prediction Market Agents: How to Update Beliefs with New Information
How autonomous betting agents use Bayes' theorem to update probability estimates when new polls, news, or market data arrives — with full derivations, conjugate priors, multi-source fusion, and production Python code.
Read → All LayersGlossary of Betting Math Terms: 200+ Definitions for Agent Developers
Comprehensive A-Z glossary of every mathematical, statistical, and betting term used in the AgentBets Math Behind Betting series. Each entry includes a precise definition, the formula where applicable, and cross-references to the guide covering it in depth.
Read → Layer 3 — TradingPrediction Market Math 101: Prices, Probabilities, and the No-Arbitrage Condition
How prediction market prices equal implied probabilities, why mispricing creates arbitrage, and how agents extract probabilities from Polymarket and Kalshi orderbooks.
Read → Layer 3 — TradingHow Prediction Market Odds Work: Probability, Pricing, and Finding an Edge
How prediction market odds and pricing work. Convert between probability, decimal odds, and American odds. Learn how to spot mispriced markets and why AI agents do it better.
Read → Layer 3 — TradingOdds Converter & Implied Probability Calculator
Convert between American, decimal, and fractional odds instantly. See implied probability, no-vig probability, and overround for any set of odds.
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