Expected Goals

Layer 4 — Intelligence

Poisson Distribution and Sports Modeling: Projecting Scores from First Principles

How to use the Poisson distribution to model goal-scoring in soccer, hockey, and baseball, build match probability matrices, and find +EV bets against sportsbook lines.

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Soccer/Football Expected Goals (xG): Mathematical Framework for Betting

How to build and exploit expected goals (xG) models for soccer betting — from logistic regression shot models to Poisson match outcome predictions, with Python implementation for autonomous agents.

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