Calibration
Layer 4 — Intelligence
Calibration and Model Evaluation: How Agents Know Their Models Are Good
The mathematical framework for evaluating prediction model accuracy — calibration plots, Brier score decomposition, ECE, Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, and automated calibration audits for betting agents.
Read → Layer 4 — IntelligenceElo Ratings and Power Rankings: Building Agent Rating Systems from Scratch
The complete math behind Elo ratings, Glicko-2, and margin-of-victory adjustments for building team and player rating systems that produce calibrated probabilities for sports betting agents.
Read → Layer 4 — IntelligencePrediction Market Scoring Rules: Brier, Logarithmic, and Proper Scoring
Derives the Brier score and logarithmic scoring rule, proves both are proper, and shows how autonomous agents use scoring rules to evaluate forecast quality against prediction market consensus.
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