Bayesian
Political Prediction Markets: Modeling Elections with Fundamentals and Polls
How to build quantitative models for political prediction markets using economic fundamentals, poll aggregation, state-level correlation modeling, and t-distribution win probability conversion.
Read → Layer 4 — IntelligenceStatistical Significance in Sports Betting: Sample Size, p-Values, and When to Trust Results
How to determine whether a betting edge is real or noise. Hypothesis testing, required sample sizes, p-values, confidence intervals, Bonferroni correction, Bayesian alternatives, and statistical power for autonomous betting agents.
Read →Polyseer Review: AI-Powered Prediction Market Research Platform
Polyseer review. Open-source multi-agent AI research platform for Polymarket and Kalshi. Bayesian probability aggregation, academic-grade methodology, systematic evidence-based analysis.
Read → Layer 4 — IntelligenceAgent Intelligence Guide: LLM Analysis for Prediction Markets
Build the brain of your prediction market agent. LLM prompt patterns, sentiment analysis, Bayesian estimation, and edge detection.
Read → Layer 4 — IntelligencePolyseer
Open-source AI research platform for prediction market analysis using multi-agent architecture and Bayesian probability aggregation.
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