{"name":"AgentBets Recent Updates","generated":"2026-04-28T18:14:31Z","url":"https://agentbets.ai/recent.json","totalPages":443,"showing":50,"pages":[{"title":"Polymarket Hairdryer Bet: Lessons for Agent Builders","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/polymarket-paris-hairdryer-settlement-risk/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-28","lastmod":"2026-04-28","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"On April 6 and April 15, 2026, the temperature sensor at Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris recorded two anomalous spikes that crossed Polymarket's daily-max thresholds and paid out roughly $34,000 to a single anonymous trader using the username xX25Xx, who deleted the account after the second win. Météo-France filed a tampering complaint with the Roissy gendarmerie alleging interference with an automated data-processing system, and French police opened an investigation. Online theories circulating in trader chats and on X (notably an analysis from the firm Bubblemaps) point to a battery-powered hairdryer or lighter as the likely heat source, but no method has been confirmed by authorities. Polymarket subsequently switched its Paris weather contracts from the Charles de Gaulle source to a Météo-France sensor at Paris-Le Bourget Airport around April 19 but did not void or refund the already-settled markets. The contracts resolved through UMA's Optimistic Oracle using a $750 USDC proposer bond, a 2-hour challenge window, and an explicit clause refusing post-finalization data revisions; once finalized by UMA, Polymarket's help center states outcomes are immutable. The deeper lesson for agent builders is that this is a settlement-source attack, not a price-manipulation attack: the attacker did not need to move market prices, only to nudge a single rounded datapoint across a binary threshold on a single Weather Underground page. This class of risk applies to any prediction market that combines exact-point settlement, single-source data, and cheap real-world influence over the source — the same trio of properties present in many local sports props, niche election contracts, and journalism-settled geopolitical markets. CME-style weather derivatives avoid this fragility by settling to cumulative HDD/CDD indexes over month-long windows; agent builders trading Polymarket and Kalshi weather, sports, and event contracts should screen markets for this profile, model oracle risk as a position-sizing input, and prefer markets with multi-source resolution, longer dispute windows, or explicit anomaly-hold provisions.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/polymarket-paris-hairdryer-settlement-risk/index.md"},{"title":"NHL Line Shopping: 400bp Vig Spread Across 19 Books","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/nhl-line-shopping-vig-spread-2026-04-23/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-23","lastmod":"2026-04-23","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"As of the April 23, 2026 06:00 UTC odds snapshot, NHL vig across 19 tracked books ranges from 3.20% at Pinnacle, LowVig.ag, and BetOnline.ag on the moneyline to 10.16% at ReBet on the puck line. On puck lines alone the spread is 670 basis points (BetUS 3.46% to ReBet 10.16%). The AgentBets Vig Index ranks Pinnacle (3.45% average), LowVig.ag (3.55%), and BetOnline.ag (3.55%) as the three sharpest NHL books for today's slate. On the moneyline, Caesars posts an outlier 7.39% NHL h2h vig — more than double the sharpest tier. Tonight's Boston Bruins home moneyline closes at Pinnacle -103 versus consensus -110 at FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, and BetUS, a seven-cent edge for shoppers. The Los Angeles Kings home moneyline has a 20-cent spread across books, from Hard Rock Bet -150 to Fliff -170, on the same market. Synthetic best-line vig — buying the top home price at one book and top away price at another — pushes effective h2h overround under 2.5% on all eight upcoming games on today's card, versus 5-8% at a single mid-tier book. For builders, this is why any serious NHL bot routes moneyline through the Pinnacle-LowVig-BetOnline tier, uses DraftKings or theScore Bet for the sharpest totals (4.31%, 4.32%), and avoids Caesars for h2h pricing entirely despite its competitive spreads vig (4.29%). The seven-minute writeup covers per-market vig rankings, the eight-game best-line board for April 23-26, and what the spread looks like in dollar terms over a 200-wager sample.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/nhl-line-shopping-vig-spread-2026-04-23/index.md"},{"title":"The Break Is a Sportsbook: AI Decides Next","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/sports-cards-live-breaks-betting-ai-convergence/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-22","lastmod":"2026-04-22","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Live sports-card breaks have scaled into a multi-billion-dollar live-commerce system that imports the behavioral mechanics of regulated sports betting — variable-reward cadence, countdown timers, social proof, near-miss psychology, and frictionless repeat participation — without the consumer-protection architecture that sports betting is required to build. The global sports trading cards market reached $13.51B in 2025 and is projected to hit $24.71B by 2033 (Grand View Research). Whatnot reported $8B in live-sales GMV for 2025 with sports cards and TCGs still leading its category mix. For scale comparison, AGA reported US legal sports betting produced $13.78B of revenue on $149.9B of handle in 2024, across 38 states plus DC. The regulatory asymmetry is the point: sports betting is licensed, age-gated, KYC'd, geofenced, and self-exclusion enabled; card breaks are governed mostly as retail commerce plus platform policy. March 2026 arbitration complaints allege some randomized break and repack formats function as unlicensed lotteries — allegations Whatnot rejects. The AI inflection is dual-use: the same models that can authenticate slabs, detect shill-bid rings, and improve price discovery can also optimize engagement around the users most likely to chase losses. The piece covers four convergence points (economics, behavior, regulation, AI), the three risk-tier break formats sharp collectors should distinguish between, and how the agentbets.ai framework — Agent Betting Stack, vig index, prediction-market math — applies to break EV in ways most breakers do not publish.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/sports-cards-live-breaks-betting-ai-convergence/index.md"},{"title":"2026 NHL Playoffs Round 1: Upsets Break the Board","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/round-1-upsets-broke-the-2026-nhl-playoff-board/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-21","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Round 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs produced the largest opening-weekend series-price reshuffle in four seasons. Philadelphia leads Pittsburgh 2-0 after stealing both games on the road, highlighted by Ivan Vladar's 27-save Game 2 shutout. Montreal took Game 1 at Tampa Bay 4-3 in overtime, flipping a series most models treated as a Lightning formality. Minnesota routed Dallas 6-1 in Game 1 before the Stars evened it 4-2. Buffalo ended an NHL-record 14-year playoff drought with a 4-3 Game 1 comeback over Boston after trailing 3-1. Utah Mammoth made its NHL playoff debut. Six of eight first-round series have already produced a dog winning a game at the sportsbook's implied probability of 35 percent or worse. The article traces the market's Game 1 and Game 2 adjustments across four specific series-price lines — Pittsburgh-Philadelphia (swung from PIT -220 to PHI -350), Tampa-Montreal (TBL -350 to -115), Dallas-Minnesota (DAL -180 to pick'em and back), and Colorado-LA (COL held at -325) — and explains how recurring market bias toward name-brand franchises in Games 1 and 2 creates the cleanest underdog edge of the betting calendar.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/round-1-upsets-broke-the-2026-nhl-playoff-board/index.md"},{"title":"Kalshi + Benzinga + Fiscal.ai Launch KPI Markets","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/benzinga-kalshi-fiscalai-kpi-contracts-agent-edge/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-21","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"On April 21, 2026, Benzinga, Kalshi, and Fiscal.ai announced a collaboration to expand Kalshi's prediction market catalog with event contracts tied to real-time company KPIs — Tesla production, Netflix subscribers, DoorDash delivery volume, and similar corporate performance indicators. Benzinga contributes the forward-looking earnings calendar, Fiscal.ai supplies structured real-time financial data across global equities, and Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated exchange that lists, clears, and settles the resulting contracts. This piece frames the launch as the first prediction market category explicitly engineered for AI-agent participation. Human traders can already bet on a stock; the new contracts let them (and their agents) bet on the underlying business milestone directly — which decouples the prediction from the equity market's mood, flow, and macro overhang. The edge for agents lives in the gap between the raw data (shipping manifests, app-store ranks, credit-card spend panels, ride-share driver counts) and the ticker, which prices the KPI with a delay and through the filter of overall market sentiment. The article covers: what the partnership actually is, the three initial contract archetypes (production/volume, subscriber counts, delivery metrics), where the agent edge compounds, how these markets fit into the four-layer Agent Betting Stack (particularly Layer 4 Intelligence), the three settlement-risk vectors (revision risk, source-of-truth risk, contract-definition risk), and why CFTC-regulated event contracts on corporate KPIs are a materially different product from the stock itself. Closes with a practical agent playbook: subscribe to Benzinga's earnings calendar for timing, ingest Fiscal.ai's structured endpoints for ground truth, price the contract against the equity's implied KPI expectation, and size positions against the contract's settlement date rather than the equity's event-vol window.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/benzinga-kalshi-fiscalai-kpi-contracts-agent-edge/index.md"},{"title":"NHL Playoffs Betting Guide: Odds, Markets \u0026 Agents","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/nhl-playoffs-betting-guide/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-21","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Complete NHL playoffs betting guide for the 2026 Stanley Cup postseason and every postseason after. Covers the full 16-team bracket and current Round 1 series scores (as of April 21, 2026, following Game 1 and 2 results), the six primary bet types — moneyline, puck line (standard ±1.5), total goals, series price, exact series correct score, and Stanley Cup futures — plus the Conn Smythe market and playoff player props. Colorado enters as the Presidents' Trophy winner with 121 points and the +300 to +310 Stanley Cup favorite; Carolina and Tampa Bay sit next on the board. Buffalo ended a 14-year playoff drought, Utah Mammoth made its NHL playoff debut, and Toronto missed the playoffs for the first time since 2015-16. The guide explains why NHL playoff vig is higher than regular-season vig, how to line-shop series prices across Bookmaker, BetOnline, Bovada, and MyBookie using the AgentBets Vig Index, how Polymarket and Kalshi price Stanley Cup contracts against sportsbook futures (and the cross-platform arbitrage windows that open), and how autonomous betting agents should model best-of-seven series — goaltender pull probabilities, home-ice adjustment, fatigue stacking, in-series line movement, and Kelly sizing with drawdown caps. Integrated with the four-layer Agent Betting Stack: Layer 3 Trading (order routing, vig gating) and Layer 4 Intelligence (series modeling, player-prop edge discovery).","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/nhl-playoffs-betting-guide/index.md"},{"title":"Stanley Cup Contender Tiers 2026: Who Has a Path","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/stanley-cup-contender-tiers-2026/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-21","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Tiered Stanley Cup contender analysis for the 2026 NHL Playoffs as of April 21, 2026, after the first two games of every first-round series. Colorado (+300 to +310) sits alone as the market's Tier 1 contender, having won 121 points in the regular season as Presidents' Trophy winner and taken Game 1 of its series against Los Angeles. Carolina (+475 to +500), up 2-0 over Ottawa after a Game 1 shutout and a double-overtime Martinook winner in Game 2, holds the cleanest contender-quality-to-price band on the board. Tampa Bay (drifted from +500 to +725) lost Game 1 at home in overtime to Montreal and is the best-known name facing the weakest short-term outlook. Vegas (+1000 to +1050) took Game 1 from Utah and represents the market's medium-risk Cup ticket if a Western bracket opens up. Edmonton (+1200 to +1300) won Game 1 over Anaheim with Draisaitl back from injury. Dallas, the other preseason contender, collapsed from +1000 to +1900 after a 6-1 Game 1 loss to Minnesota. The analysis grades each team through four variables: goaltender stability, bracket difficulty, in-series signal from Games 1 and 2, and whether the sportsbook price actually reflects Cup-win probability. The piece concludes that Carolina is the only contender whose price looks too long relative to its path, Tampa is the only contender whose price has moved far enough to become interesting again, and Colorado is the right price for the best team — which is not the same as a bet.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/stanley-cup-contender-tiers-2026/index.md"},{"title":"Polymarket Review: Platform, API \u0026 Agent Guide","url":"https://agentbets.ai/prediction-markets/polymarket/","section":"prediction-markets","date":"2026-03-27","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"updated","llmSummary":"Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan on the Polygon blockchain with USDC settlement. As of April 2026, Polymarket has raised approximately $2.3 billion, including up to $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange at a $9 billion valuation in October 2025, with an additional $600 million from ICE announced March 27, 2026. Monthly trading volume exceeds $8 billion with a single-day record of $425 million. Polymarket acquired QCEX — a CFTC-licensed DCM and DCO — for $112 million in July 2025, enabling its US relaunch in January 2026 with sports markets only. Additional acquisitions include Brahma (DeFi infrastructure), Dome (developer tools), and Lunch (recruiting). The developer stack splits across three APIs: Gamma for market discovery, CLOB for order execution, and Data for user queries. Official SDKs exist in Python (py-clob-client), TypeScript, and Rust. Authentication uses EIP-712 signed messages. Settlement occurs on-chain via UMA's Optimistic Oracle. Polymarket introduced taker fees in January 2026 on crypto markets, expanding to nearly all categories on March 30, 2026 — peak rates range from 0.75% for sports to 1.80% for crypto, with geopolitics remaining fee-free. Maker rebates range from 20% to 50%. The platform hosts over 3,200 active sports markets. A Palantir/TWG AI partnership deploys the Vergence engine for sports integrity monitoring. On April 6, 2026, Polymarket launched pmUSD (Polymarket USD), a 1:1 USDC-backed native stablecoin replacing bridged USDC.e, alongside the CTF Exchange V2 upgrade with EIP-1271 smart contract wallet support, simplified order struct, and faster order matching (V2 cutover April 22, 2026). On April 21, 2026, Polymarket launched perpetual futures trading with 10x+ leverage on crypto and stocks, extending prediction markets into leveraged derivatives. Polymarket faces bans in France, Singapore, Belgium, Poland, Romania, and Portugal, and encounters state-level litigation in Nevada and Massachusetts.","llmContentType":"platform-review","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/prediction-markets/polymarket/index.md"},{"title":"Build an OpenClaw Betting Stack Advisor Skill — Personalized Agent Setup Guide","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/openclaw-agent-betting-stack-advisor-skill/","section":"guides","date":"2026-03-21","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"updated","llmSummary":"This guide walks through building a custom OpenClaw skill called agent-betting-stack-advisor that acts as a personalized setup wizard for autonomous betting agents. The skill is a SKILL.md file — a markdown document with YAML frontmatter that teaches an OpenClaw agent how to assess a user's goals (sports betting, prediction markets, or both), budget constraints, and technical level, then recommend a concrete stack of tools, APIs, and OpenClaw skills mapped to the four-layer Agent Betting Stack framework (Identity, Wallet, Trading, Intelligence). The skill requires no external APIs or binary dependencies — it is a pure knowledge skill that uses decision-tree logic embedded in the SKILL.md instructions. It outputs a setup checklist with estimated costs, time-to-deploy, and links to AgentBets guides for each recommended component. The guide covers the complete SKILL.md structure, the four-layer framework mapping, budget tiers (free, hobby at $25/mo, pro at $100+/mo), and how to extend the skill with platform-specific recommendations. This is an All Layers (Meta) skill in the Agent Betting Stack framework. OpenClaw is the open-source AI agent framework with 250,000+ GitHub stars that uses SKILL.md files to extend agent capabilities without writing traditional code — skills are markdown instructions the LLM follows at runtime.","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/openclaw-agent-betting-stack-advisor-skill/index.md"},{"title":"Polymarket WebSocket Guide: Channels, Subscriptions \u0026 Real-Time Orderbook (2026)","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/polymarket-websocket-guide/","section":"guides","date":"2026-03-10","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"updated","llmSummary":"Complete guide to Polymarket's four WebSocket channels for real-time market data and trading. Market channel (wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/ws/market) provides orderbook snapshots, price changes, tick size changes, last trade prices, and custom events (best_bid_ask, new_market, market_resolved) when custom_feature_enabled is true. User channel (same host /ws/user) requires API key/secret/passphrase auth and delivers order lifecycle events (trade, order) subscribed by condition_id. Sports channel (wss://sports-api.polymarket.com/ws) streams live game scores and status for all active sports events with server-initiated ping/pong. RTDS (wss://ws-live-data.polymarket.com) streams crypto prices from Binance (btcusdt, ethusdt, solusdt, xrpusdt) and Chainlink (btc/usd, eth/usd, sol/usd, xrp/usd) plus comments. Covers subscription formats, heartbeat requirements (10s for market/user, 5s for sports/RTDS), dynamic subscribe/unsubscribe operations, orderbook reconstruction algorithm (REST snapshot plus incremental WebSocket updates), reconnection with exponential backoff, and agent integration patterns.","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/polymarket-websocket-guide/index.md"},{"title":"Prediction Markets 101: What They Are, How They Work, and How to Start Trading","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/prediction-markets-101/","section":"guides","date":"2026-03-08","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"updated","llmSummary":"Comprehensive beginner's guide to prediction markets covering what they are, how they work, the major platforms (Polymarket and Kalshi), how to place your first trade, common strategies, and how AI agents are transforming prediction market trading. Prediction markets are exchanges where you buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes — elections, economic data, weather, sports, and more. Unlike traditional betting, prediction markets use continuous double-auction order books where prices reflect real-time consensus probability. Polymarket is the largest prediction market by volume, running on Polygon with USDC settlement. Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US, trading in USD. The guide covers order types (limit, market, GTC, FOK), how to read prediction market prices as implied probabilities, the concept of binary Yes/No contracts, and the difference between prediction markets and sportsbooks. It explains why prediction markets often produce more accurate forecasts than polls or expert panels, citing mechanisms like the wisdom of crowds, continuous price discovery, and skin-in-the-game incentives. The guide funnels into AgentBets' core content on autonomous betting agents, covering how AI agents use prediction market APIs to trade programmatically, and linking to the agent betting stack, Polymarket API guide, Kalshi API guide, and prediction market bot rankings.","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/prediction-markets-101/index.md"},{"title":"Best Kalshi Trading Bots Ranked (2026)","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/best-kalshi-trading-bots-2026/","section":"guides","date":"2026-03-03","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"updated","llmSummary":"Ranked review of every verified Kalshi trading bot available in 2026, with GitHub repos, star counts, and honest capability assessments. Covers ryanfrigo/kalshi-ai-trading-bot (162 GitHub stars, multi-model AI ensemble using five frontier LLMs via OpenRouter, Kelly Criterion sizing, SQLite trade logging, paper trading mode), OctagonAI/kalshi-deep-trading-bot (117 stars, Octagon Deep Research integration with OpenAI structured outputs, 5-gate risk engine, CLI-first design), Kalshi News Bot (open-source ~300-line Claude AI news sentiment trader on AgentBets tools directory), yllvar/Kalshi-Quant-TeleBot (Telegram-controlled Python trading engine with event correlation and multi-strategy support), ajwann/kalshi-genai-trading-bot (minimal Grok-powered bot, vibe-coded, good learning resource), Alphascope (SaaS AI research tool with 10,000+ traders, cross-platform Kalshi and Polymarket analysis, arbitrage detection, free tier), and pmxt unified SDK (CCXT-style library covering Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, and more). All bots verified against live GitHub repositories or production websites as of April 2026. Kalshi-specific considerations include CFTC regulation, RSA key authentication, fixed-point dollar-string pricing (migrated March 2026 from legacy integer cents), order amendment support, and demo environment at demo-api.kalshi.co. As of April 21, 2026, Kalshi also hosts company KPI event contracts via a Benzinga + Fiscal.ai data partnership — a new specialty category for KPI-focused bots.","llmContentType":"best-of-ranking","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/best-kalshi-trading-bots-2026/index.md"},{"title":"Best Prediction Market Bots 2026: Complete Rankings and Reviews","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/best-prediction-market-bots/","section":"guides","date":"2026-03-01","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"updated","llmSummary":"Comprehensive rankings of the best prediction market bots and AI trading agents for 2026. Covers tools and agents across Polymarket, Kalshi, and cross-platform use cases. Each entry includes strategy type, supported platforms, pricing, pros/cons, and verdict. Categories include best overall, best for beginners, best open-source, best for arbitrage, and best for Kalshi.","llmContentType":"ranking-review","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/best-prediction-market-bots/index.md"},{"title":"The Agent Betting Stack Explained","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/agent-betting-stack/","section":"guides","date":"2026-02-26","lastmod":"2026-04-21","changeType":"updated","llmSummary":"Comprehensive guide mapping the four layers needed to build an autonomous prediction market trading agent: (1) Identity via Moltbook for portable agent reputation, (2) Wallet via Coinbase Agentic Wallets and x402 for autonomous spending, (3) Trading via Polymarket CLI and Kalshi API for market access, (4) Intelligence via LLMs and analysis frameworks. Includes architecture diagrams, integration points between layers, and recommended tool choices.","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/agent-betting-stack/index.md"},{"title":"GG.BET Launches AI-Powered Combo Bets","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/ggbet-ai-combo-bets-popular-bets-feature/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-17","lastmod":"2026-04-17","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"GG.BET launched its Popular Bets feature on April 15, 2026, which uses recommendation algorithms to generate ready-made combo (parlay) bets from high-volume markets across sports and esports. The feature surfaces pre-built multi-leg selections on the homepage, allowing users to add an entire combo to their bet slip in one click. GG.BET describes the system as using 'enhanced recommendation algorithms' that analyze market popularity among platform users to generate selections. The launch follows GG.BET's December 2025 release of Bet Builder, which lets users combine multiple outcomes within a single match. From an agent infrastructure perspective, Popular Bets represents a production example of Layer 4 Intelligence — automated market analysis feeding a recommendation engine that surfaces correlated selections. The underlying pattern (ingest real-time odds, score market popularity, filter for correlation, output structured combo slips) maps directly to what developers can build today using sportsbook APIs like The Odds API, prediction market CLOBs, and orchestration frameworks like CrewAI. The feature targets casual bettors who want exposure to multi-leg wagers without manual analysis, a use case that autonomous betting agents can replicate and improve on with sharper edge detection and proper bankroll management via Kelly Criterion sizing.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/ggbet-ai-combo-bets-popular-bets-feature/index.md"},{"title":"S. 4160 Prediction Market Gambling Act Analysis","url":"https://agentbets.ai/blog/s-4160-prediction-markets-gambling-act-analysis/","section":"blog","date":"2026-04-17","lastmod":"2026-04-17","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Analysis of S. 4160, the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced March 23, 2026 by Senators Schiff, Curtis, and Cortez Masto. The bill would add Section 5c(c)(6) to the Commodity Exchange Act, prohibiting any agreement, contract, or transaction relating to sporting events, athletic competitions, or casino-style games from being listed or cleared on CFTC-registered entities. The bill's operative language is materially broader than the sponsors' public framing of stopping contracts that resemble sports bets — the statutory text uses a relating to standard that would reach moneylines, props, player-stat contracts, futures, and hybrid products. The bill includes an anti-preemption clause preserving state gambling law and a prospective applicability clause covering only contracts entered after enactment. As of April 17, 2026, S. 4160 has been referred to the Senate Agriculture Committee but has not advanced to markup, hearing, or floor vote. Polymarket's contract on whether a sports prediction market ban will be enacted in 2026 prices Yes at roughly 10.5%. The bill's direct targets are CFTC-registered exchanges like Kalshi and the US arm of Polymarket. State-licensed sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, MGM) are net beneficiaries. Offshore and decentralized platforms face indirect pressure through state enforcement, payment friction, and geoblocking. Parallel bills include the BETS OFF Act (Murphy/Casar, March 17) and the STOP Corrupt Bets Act (Merkley/Raskin, March 26). The CFTC has simultaneously reaffirmed exclusive jurisdiction, signed an MLB integrity MOU, sued to block state enforcement in Arizona, and launched an ANPR on prediction markets.","llmContentType":"blog-post","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/blog/s-4160-prediction-markets-gambling-act-analysis/index.md"},{"title":"Polymarket \u0026 Kalshi API Dev Brief: April 9–16, 2026","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/polymarket-kalshi-dev-brief-april-9-16-2026/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-16","lastmod":"2026-04-16","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Developer brief covering prediction market API changes and developer-facing incidents for the week of April 9 to April 16, 2026. Polymarket shipped three documented changelog updates: on April 9 the GET /markets endpoint changed so that closed defaults to false and closed markets are excluded unless closed=true is explicitly passed; on April 10 new keyset pagination endpoints GET /markets/keyset and GET /events/keyset launched with opaque after_cursor and next_cursor tokens, replacing offset-based pagination; on April 13 Bridge API documentation added support links for failed or stuck bridge transactions routed through Fun.xyz. On April 14 The Information reported Polymarket launched an audit of Builders Program startups Polycool and Kreo, both copy-trading apps flagged for helping users mirror accounts suspected of insider trading. An ongoing supply-chain threat persists from the hijacked dev-protocol GitHub organization distributing malicious Polymarket copy-trading bots with typosquatted npm dependencies including levex-refa, lint-builder, ts-bign, and big-nunber that exfiltrate .env wallet keys and open SSH backdoors. Kalshi continues its fixed-point migration with legacy integer cents price fields like yes_bid and last_price deprecated March 5, 2026, replaced by _dollars fixed-point dollar strings. Integer count fields are being replaced by _fp fixed-point equivalents. The standard Thursday 3 to 5 AM ET FIX maintenance window requires ResetSeqNumFlag=Y on tag 141 for the first Logon after maintenance on sessions without retransmission including KalshiNR, KalshiDC, and KalshiPT. Federal judge Michael Liburdi issued a temporary restraining order on April 10 halting Arizona's criminal prosecution of Kalshi, following CFTC intervention.","llmContentType":"developer-brief","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/polymarket-kalshi-dev-brief-april-9-16-2026/index.md"},{"title":"KellyBench: Every AI Model Lost Money on EPL","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/kellybench-ai-models-lose-premier-league-betting/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-15","lastmod":"2026-04-15","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"KellyBench is a long-horizon evaluation benchmark released April 9, 2026 by General Reasoning, a London-based AI research firm. The benchmark places frontier AI agents in a simulated 2023-24 English Premier League betting market with a £100,000 virtual bankroll and asks them to maximize long-term growth across a full season (100-150 matchdays, 500-900 tool calls per episode). Eight frontier models were tested: Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5.4, Gemini 3.1 Pro, Gemini Flash 3.1 LP, GLM-5, Kimi K2.5, Grok 4.20, and Arcee Trinity. Every model lost money on average. Claude Opus 4.6 performed best with a mean ROI of -11% (best seed: -0.2%), followed by GPT-5.4 at -13.6%. Six of eight models experienced total bankruptcy on at least one seed. Model sophistication was scored on a 44-point rubric developed with quantitative betting fund experts covering model design, execution strategy, and handling of non-stationarity. No model scored above one-third of available points. Sophistication and ROI showed a statistically significant positive correlation (Pearson r ≈ 0.42). The benchmark highlights a gap between analytical capability and operational competence: models that retrained strategies in response to match data, deployed systematic staking rules, and preserved capital during low-edge periods outperformed those with ad-hoc approaches. KellyBench is built on the Open Reward Standard (ORS) and available as an open-access API endpoint on OpenReward.","llmContentType":"news-article","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/kellybench-ai-models-lose-premier-league-betting/index.md"},{"title":"Odds Converter \u0026 Implied Probability Calculator","url":"https://agentbets.ai/tools/odds-converter/","section":"tools","date":"2026-02-28","lastmod":"2026-04-14","changeType":"updated","llmSummary":"Interactive odds converter tool that converts between American (moneyline), decimal, and fractional odds formats. Shows implied probability for any odds value. Includes a multi-outcome mode that calculates total implied probability, overround (vig), and no-vig fair probabilities for 2-way and multi-way markets.","llmContentType":"interactive-tool","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/tools/odds-converter/index.md"},{"title":"Masters 2026 Post-Tournament Odds Analysis","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/masters-2026-post-tournament-odds-analysis/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-13","lastmod":"2026-04-13","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Post-tournament analysis of the 2026 Masters using 22 odds snapshots from the AgentBets masters-ingest pipeline across nine sportsbooks, compared against historical snapshots from the 2024 and 2025 Masters. Rory McIlroy won at 12-under par (276) with a final-round 71, one shot ahead of Scottie Scheffler at 11-under. Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Cameron Young, and Russell Henley shared third at 10-under. McIlroy's implied probability swung from 7.7% pre-Round-1 to 75.2% post-Round-2 to 39.7% post-Round-3 to 87.7% at final settlement — a 78.8 percentage point range, the most volatile winner arc in the AgentBets three-year Masters dataset. By comparison, Scheffler's 2024 wire-to-wire win had an implied probability range near zero (steady at 20%). Scheffler was priced at +400 as pre-tournament favorite for three consecutive years (2024-2026) with near-identical implied probability around 20% each time. McIlroy became the fourth player to win consecutive Masters titles, joining Nicklaus, Faldo, and Tiger Woods. The 2026 tournament had peak coverage of 12 concurrent sportsbooks vs 9 in 2024 and 8 in 2025. DraftKings and FanDuel graded as the best-value books throughout the tournament. Vig declined from 54% pre-tournament to 11.6% at final settlement as the field narrowed from 113 outcomes to 7.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/masters-2026-post-tournament-odds-analysis/index.md"},{"title":"McIlroy Wins Back-to-Back Masters at -12","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/mcilroy-wins-2026-masters-back-to-back/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-13","lastmod":"2026-04-13","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Rory McIlroy won the 2026 Masters Tournament at 12-under par (276) with a final-round 71, one shot ahead of Scottie Scheffler at 11-under. McIlroy is the fourth player to win consecutive Masters titles after Jack Nicklaus (1965-66), Nick Faldo (1989-90), and Tiger Woods (2001-02). His sixth major championship ties Nick Faldo for the most by a European player. Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Cameron Young, and Russell Henley shared third at 10-under. McIlroy held the largest 36-hole lead in Masters history (six shots) after shooting 67-65, surrendered it entirely with a 73 on Moving Day, fell two behind Young and Rose during the final round, then birdied around Amen Corner to retake the lead. He bogeyed the 72nd hole from a greenside bunker but had enough margin to win by one. AgentBets tracked his outright odds across 22 snapshots: he opened at +1,025 (8.9% implied), peaked at -303 (75.2%) post-Round 2, crashed to +152 (39.7%) post-Round 3, and settled at -714 (87.7%) at final. Cameron Young, who co-led entering Sunday, shot 73 (+1) to finish T3.","llmContentType":"news-article","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/mcilroy-wins-2026-masters-back-to-back/index.md"},{"title":"Polymarket Launches pmUSD in Exchange Overhaul","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/polymarket-pmusd-independence-day-upgrade/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-12","lastmod":"2026-04-12","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Polymarket launched Polymarket USD (pmUSD) on April 6, 2026, replacing the bridged USDC.e token as collateral across all prediction markets. The new stablecoin is backed 1:1 by Circle's native USDC, eliminating bridge-related risks that come with wrapped assets on Polygon. The upgrade also includes CTF Exchange V2, a rebuilt trading engine with lower gas costs and EIP-1271 smart contract wallet support. The rollout spans 2-3 weeks, with existing users auto-migrated via a one-time approval and API traders required to update to the latest CLOB-Client SDK. The timing coincides with record sports betting volume on prediction markets — the 2026 Masters alone has driven over $260 million in combined trading volume across Polymarket ($92M outright winner market) and Kalshi ($168M). Polymarket's valuation exceeds $20 billion following its QCX LLC acquisition and CFTC no-action letter enabling invite-only US access. March 2026 saw $10.57 billion in monthly volume on Polymarket, up 33% month-over-month. The infrastructure upgrade positions Polymarket to handle increasing sports and event volume by reducing settlement friction and giving the platform direct control over its collateral rails.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/polymarket-pmusd-independence-day-upgrade/index.md"},{"title":"Young Erases McIlroy's Record Lead on Moving Day","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/masters-2026-final-round-odds-young-ties-mcilroy/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-12","lastmod":"2026-04-12","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Cameron Young shot a 7-under 65 on Moving Day to erase Rory McIlroy's record six-shot lead at the 2026 Masters, tying McIlroy at 11-under par entering the final round. McIlroy shot a 1-over 73 with a double bogey on the 11th and bogeys on the 1st, 12th, and 17th, offset by four birdies. His outright odds dropped from -278 (73.5% implied) to +140 (41.7%), a 31.8 percentage point single-round loss — the largest negative swing of the tournament. Young's odds moved from +1,900 (5.0%) to +195 (33.9%), a 28.9 pp gain. Scottie Scheffler also shot 65 to climb from T22 to T7 at -7, with his odds rising from +5,000 (2.0%) to +810 (11.0%). The market prices Scheffler 4 shots back higher than Shane Lowry 2 shots back (11.0% vs 8.7%), reflecting his two-time Masters champion pedigree. Sam Burns sits one back at -10 after a 68. The Odds API scores endpoint populated for the first time post-Round 3, confirming all prior odds-inferred leaderboard positions. DraftKings (0.43%) and FanDuel (0.41%) remain the best-value books for Sunday outrights. Data from nine sportsbooks via the AgentBets masters-ingest pipeline.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/masters-2026-final-round-odds-young-ties-mcilroy/index.md"},{"title":"McIlroy Takes Record 6-Shot Masters Lead at -250","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/mcilroy-record-masters-lead-round-2-odds/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-11","lastmod":"2026-04-11","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Rory McIlroy shot a 7-under 65 in Round 2 of the 2026 Masters on April 10, building the largest 36-hole lead in tournament history at 12-under par, six shots clear of Patrick Reed and Sam Burns at 6-under. McIlroy birdied six of his final seven holes, including a chip-in on the 17th. His outright odds moved from +245 post-Round-1 to -250 consensus across seven retail books entering Moving Day, with Betfair exchange at -222. The implied probability swing from pre-tournament (+1,200 / 7.7%) to post-Round-2 (-250 / 73.5%) is a 65.8 pp move in 36 holes of golf. Scottie Scheffler shot a 2-over 74 — finding water on both back-nine par 5s (13th and 15th) — snapping his streak of 11 consecutive par-or-better rounds at Augusta. Scheffler's odds collapsed from +333 (23.1%) to +5,000 (2.0%), dropping to 11th favorite. Bryson DeChambeau missed the cut after a triple bogey from a greenside bunker on the 18th. Jon Rahm shot 70 to make the cut at 4-over but sits at +50,000 (0.2%). The cut removed 38 of 92 tracked players. Post-cut vig analysis shows DraftKings (0.30%) and BetMGM (0.31%) at Grade A, while Kambi-powered books Unibet and BetRivers sit at Grade D after culling to 27 outcomes. Data captured via The Odds API masters-ingest pipeline across nine sportsbooks.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/mcilroy-record-masters-lead-round-2-odds/index.md"},{"title":"McIlroy, Burns Share Masters Lead as Odds Reprice","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/mcilroy-burns-lead-masters-round-1-odds-repricing/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-10","lastmod":"2026-04-10","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"After Round 1 of the 2026 Masters Tournament on April 9, defending champion Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns share the lead at 5-under 67. McIlroy's outright odds moved from +1,200 (7.7% implied probability) to +235 (29.9%) — a 22.2 percentage point swing across sportsbooks in a single 8-hour window, tracked by the AgentBets odds pipeline across nine sportsbooks. Kurt Kitayama, Jason Day, and Patrick Reed share third at 3-under 69. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Justin Rose, and Shane Lowry are tied at 2-under 70. Jon Rahm shot a birdie-less 6-over 78, the worst opening round of his Masters career, collapsing from +900 (10.0% implied) to +12,500 (0.8%) — a 9.2 pp loss. Bryson DeChambeau also struggled. Sportsbooks simultaneously culled their outright boards: Unibet and BetRivers stripped 37 longshots from their 91-player fields. FanDuel (0.36% normalized vig) and DraftKings (0.37%) grade as the tightest books entering Round 2. Data captured via The Odds API through the AgentBets masters-ingest pipeline with 3x daily snapshots stored in Cloudflare KV.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/mcilroy-burns-lead-masters-round-1-odds-repricing/index.md"},{"title":"Unconventional Indexes Are Fueling Prediction Markets","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/unconventional-indexes-prediction-markets-sports-props/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-10","lastmod":"2026-04-10","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Unconventional economic indexes — including the Men's Underwear Index (tracked since the Greenspan era), the Cardboard Box Indicator, the Lipstick/Skincare Index, the Date Night Index, the Tooth Fairy Index (correlated with S\u0026P 500 per Delta Dental data), and the Diaper Rash Ointment Index — are finding new life as inputs to prediction market contracts and sports betting prop models. Platforms like Kalshi generated over $1.1 billion in economics trading volume in 2024 across CPI, unemployment, and GDP contracts. A January 2026 Federal Reserve working paper noted that Kalshi's markets provide distributionally rich views of macro outcomes that Fed Funds futures cannot replicate. Polymarket hosts economy-category markets covering inflation, GDP, and macro indicators with tens of millions in volume. The connection to sports betting is structural: prop bets on player and team performance are micro-prediction markets themselves, and the same alternative-data mindset — looking beyond headline numbers to behavioral proxies — drives edge in both domains. AI betting agents increasingly ingest unconventional data feeds alongside traditional odds data to identify sentiment shifts, consumer confidence proxies, and spending pattern changes that correlate with betting handle volume and line movement. The convergence of vibes-based economic indicators, prediction market infrastructure, and sports props represents a broader trend: markets are expanding to price any measurable signal, no matter how strange.","llmContentType":"news-article","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/unconventional-indexes-prediction-markets-sports-props/index.md"},{"title":"py_clob_client Python Reference — Every Method with Code Examples (2026)","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/py-clob-client-reference/","section":"guides","date":"2026-02-28","lastmod":"2026-04-10","changeType":"updated","llmSummary":"Complete method-level reference for py_clob_client (v0.34.6), Polymarket's official Python SDK with 1.1M+ monthly PyPI downloads and 1,058 GitHub stars. Documents every public method on ClobClient with parameters, return types, example code, and response structures. Covers: initialization and wallet types (EOA, Magic, Gnosis Safe), authentication (create_or_derive_api_creds, set_api_creds, readonly API keys), token allowances for EOA wallets, balance methods (get_balance with wei-to-USDC conversion, get_balance_allowance with AssetType.COLLATERAL and CONDITIONAL), position tracking (get_positions with P\u0026L patterns), order placement (create_order, post_order, create_and_post_order, create_market_order, batch orders via post_orders), order management (cancel, cancel_all, get_orders, get_order), order book (get_order_book with OrderBookSummary, get_price, get_midpoint, get_order_books for batch), RFQ methods for institutional trading with full parameter documentation (get_rfq_quote, accept_rfq_quote, create_rfq_order), and data types (OrderArgs, MarketOrderArgs, OrderType with GTC/FOK/FAK semantics). Includes common pitfalls section covering wei conversion bugs, signature_type selection, missing funder address, FOK failures on thin markets, and missing token allowance errors. Features a Known Issues \u0026 Workarounds section tracking active GitHub bugs (April 2026: #284-#326, plus the still-open #293-#301 cluster). Clarifies that py_clob_client does NOT work with Polymarket US (api.polymarket.us) — different auth (Ed25519 vs EIP-712). Includes comparison of py-clob-client vs polymarket-apis community package. Cross-references Polymarket rate limits, WebSocket streaming, Gamma API, TypeScript SDK, and Rust SDK guides. Notes that Polymarket published py-clob-client-v2 and clob-client-v2 repos in April 2026 as early-stage successor projects (empty descriptions, few stars as of publication).","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/py-clob-client-reference/index.md"},{"title":"Common Prediction Market API Integration Mistakes","url":"https://agentbets.ai/blog/common-prediction-market-api-integration-mistakes/","section":"blog","date":"2026-04-09","lastmod":"2026-04-09","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"This post documents seven common mistakes developers encounter when building prediction market data pipelines across Polymarket and Kalshi. Mistake 1: trusting API documentation — Polymarket's Gamma API returns camelCase fields (conditionId, volumeNum) instead of the snake_case the docs suggest, and clobTokenIds is a double-serialized JSON string, not a native array. Kalshi uses volume_24h_fp (string) instead of volume_24h (number), and orderbooks live under orderbook_fp.yes_dollars, not orderbook.yes. Mistake 2: Kalshi's 10,000+ open markets are mostly auto-generated parlays with zero volume — the /events endpoint with with_nested_markets=true filters to real prediction markets. Mistake 3: Kalshi returns bids-only orderbooks — YES asks must be derived as 100 minus best NO bid. Mistake 4: Cloudflare Workers have a 128MB memory limit, requiring iterative processing instead of batch accumulation. Mistake 5: the 1,000 subrequest limit per Worker invocation caps orderbook fetches at roughly 400 per platform, and waitUntil timeouts silently kill background jobs after 30 seconds. Mistake 6: computing aggregate health metrics from pre-filtered top-N markets produces misleading results — you need discovery data across all markets. Mistake 7: signal cadence must match signal half-life — 8-hour cron snapshots catch sustained trends but miss minute-level arbitrage. The post includes a composite liquidity scoring formula (spread, depth, volume, balance — each 0-25 points) and real data showing Polymarket's 352 liquid markets versus Kalshi's 0 markets scoring above 60. Infrastructure runs on Cloudflare Workers ($5/mo) with KV storage and cron triggers.","llmContentType":"technical-blog","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/blog/common-prediction-market-api-integration-mistakes/index.md"},{"title":"Polymarket's $120M Oracle Problem","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/polymarket-uma-oracle-dispute-iran-ceasefire/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-09","lastmod":"2026-04-09","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"In April 2026, Polymarket's Iran ceasefire market — with over $120 million in trading volume — entered a disputed resolution process decided by UMA token holders. UMA's total market cap at the time was approximately $38 million, meaning a small group of token stakers with perhaps $20 million in effective voting power controlled the outcome of a market worth six times their collective holdings. The dispute centered on whether Trump's April 7 Truth Social post offering a conditional two-week ceasefire constituted an 'official ceasefire agreement' under market rules. Critics argued UMA stakers likely held positions in the very markets they were adjudicating, creating an irreconcilable conflict of interest. This article compares prediction market resolution via token-holder voting to sportsbook prop grading, where centralized operators use internal teams with published house rules and no financial exposure to individual bet outcomes. Sportsbooks grade props within minutes to hours using official stats providers (Sportradar, Genius Sports), while Polymarket disputes can take days and produce inconsistent outcomes. The comparison highlights that decentralized oracle systems introduce settlement risk absent from traditional sportsbook infrastructure — a critical consideration for developers building autonomous betting agents that need deterministic resolution guarantees.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/polymarket-uma-oracle-dispute-iran-ceasefire/index.md"},{"title":"Polymarket API Tutorial: Python Authentication, Orders \u0026 WebSocket Streaming (2026)","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/polymarket-api-guide/","section":"guides","date":"2026-02-26","lastmod":"2026-04-09","changeType":"updated","llmSummary":"Comprehensive developer guide for the Polymarket prediction market API ecosystem. Covers three primary APIs (CLOB for order book and trading, Gamma for market discovery and metadata, Data for positions and history) plus Bridge API, real-time streaming channels (CLOB WebSocket with market/user/sports channels, RTDS for low-latency data), and Polymarket US (CFTC-regulated, Ed25519 auth, separate SDKs at api.polymarket.us). Includes full authentication setup with EIP-712 signed messages, wallet types and signature types, order placement (limit, market, batch, post-only), order management, and position tracking. Code examples provided in Python (py-clob-client), TypeScript (@polymarket/clob-client), and Rust (polymarket-client-sdk). Covers key concepts including token IDs, neg-risk markets, conditional token framework split/merge operations, fees, and the Builder Program. Includes common agent patterns: price monitoring, cross-market arbitrage scanning, and WebSocket-based LLM agent loops.","llmContentType":"developer-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/polymarket-api-guide/index.md"},{"title":"MLB Arctic Blast Totals Create Edge for Weather Agents","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/mlb-arctic-blast-totals-weather-agents/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-07","lastmod":"2026-04-07","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"On April 7, 2026, a major cold front across the Midwest and East Coast pushed MLB game totals to historic lows, with five games opening at 6.5 runs — a threshold reached only 30 times across the entire 2025 season. Temperatures at Target Field in Minneapolis dropped to 35°F, Cleveland sat at 44°F, and Chicago at 44°F. This event illustrates a structural edge available to autonomous betting agents that continuously poll weather APIs (OpenWeatherMap, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io) and cross-reference conditions against park-specific ball-flight models. Cold air increases air density, suppressing ball carry and reducing home run probability. Research shows teams average roughly 4.2 runs per game below 60°F versus 4.7+ runs above 80°F. Wind direction relative to stadium orientation is the single most actionable weather variable. An agent architecture polling weather data every 30 minutes, comparing against historical park factor baselines, and executing totals bets when conditions deviate by more than one standard deviation from seasonal norms can identify mispriced lines before books fully adjust. This applies to both offshore sportsbooks via API and prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi where weather-correlated event contracts exist. The agent betting stack layers involved are Layer 3 (Trading) for execution and Layer 4 (Intelligence) for the weather-to-edge signal pipeline.","llmContentType":"news-article","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/mlb-arctic-blast-totals-weather-agents/index.md"},{"title":"14 of Top 20 Polymarket Traders Are Bots","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/14-of-top-20-polymarket-traders-are-bots/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-06","lastmod":"2026-04-06","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Cryptocurrency researcher Stacy Muur reported in March 2026 that 14 of the top 20 most profitable traders on Polymarket are fully automated bots. This statistic marks a decisive shift from predictive AI — models that output a probability score for human execution — to agentic AI systems that autonomously scan markets, evaluate news, size positions, and execute trades without human intervention. Arbitrage bots exploiting latency between Polymarket and spot exchanges like Binance have generated extraordinary returns, with one bot turning $313 into $414,000 in a single month on 15-minute BTC/ETH/SOL contracts. An academic paper estimated that arbitrage traders extracted roughly $40 million from Polymarket between April 2024 and April 2025. The average arbitrage window has compressed from 12.3 seconds in 2024 to 2.7 seconds in 2026, with 73% of arbitrage profits captured by sub-100ms execution bots. AgentBets.ai covers this transition through its Agent Betting Stack framework, marketplace of autonomous trading agents, Vig Index for odds comparison, and technical guides on Polymarket API integration, wallet infrastructure, and agent orchestration frameworks like CrewAI and OpenClaw.","llmContentType":"news-article","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/14-of-top-20-polymarket-traders-are-bots/index.md"},{"title":"3 Open-Source AI Sports Betting Projects to Watch","url":"https://agentbets.ai/blog/open-source-ai-sports-betting-projects/","section":"blog","date":"2026-04-06","lastmod":"2026-04-06","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"A survey of three trending open-source AI sports betting projects on GitHub as of April 2026. BettingAI by erikbohne uses TensorFlow/Keras deep learning with FastAPI to predict football match outcomes, featuring automated data ingestion from fotmob.com into PostgreSQL, K-Fold cross-validation, and a live odds pipeline. DGFantasy Optimizer is a proprietary ML-powered DFS tool that finds +EV player props by comparing projections against live sportsbook lines across PrizePicks, Underdog, and traditional books — a practical implementation of expected value theory. AIFootballPredictions by MauroAndretta uses Scikit-Learn and XGBoost voting classifiers to predict Over/Under 2.5 goals across five European leagues (Serie A, EPL, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1), employing advanced feature engineering and hyperparameter tuning. The article maps each project to the Agent Betting Stack layers and connects their techniques to AgentBets.ai math guides covering Poisson distribution, expected value, regression models, and xG modeling.","llmContentType":"blog-post","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/blog/open-source-ai-sports-betting-projects/index.md"},{"title":"Masters 2026: What Six Years of Odds Data Reveal","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/masters-2026-odds-data-what-six-years-reveal/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-06","lastmod":"2026-04-06","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Analysis of 33,316 Masters Tournament outright odds records from 2020–2026 reveals three key patterns for the 2026 Masters starting April 9: pre-tournament favorites won only 1 of 6 completed Masters (17%), but players ranked in the top 5 by implied probability won 5 of 6 (83%); line movement from January to tournament week identified the eventual winner among the top 5 biggest movers in every year from 2022–2025; and bookmaker vig on 2026 Masters outrights ranges from 0.32% (BetOnline) to 0.62% (BetRivers), a spread large enough for AI agents to exploit systematically. Scottie Scheffler enters as the 2026 favorite at +410 with 15.4% implied probability — down from 25% in January, the largest pre-tournament contraction in the dataset. The average winning odds across the dataset are +758, with most winners falling in the +400 to +900 range. Odds spreads on mid-tier contenders like Robert Macintyre (+2800 to +4000 across books) create actionable value-shopping opportunities for agent-driven betting systems. Full data analysis at /guides/masters-odds-data-analysis/ and betting guide at /guides/masters-golf-odds/.","llmContentType":"news-article","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/masters-2026-odds-data-what-six-years-reveal/index.md"},{"title":"OG.com Prediction Market Guide","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/og-com-prediction-market-guide/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-06","lastmod":"2026-04-06","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"OG.com is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform launched February 3, 2026, powered by Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA). The platform operates as a peer-to-peer exchange where users trade binary event contracts priced between $0.01 and $1.00. OG.com focuses primarily on sports contracts — moneylines, spreads, totals, player props, futures, and parlays up to four legs — while also covering politics, economics, culture, crypto, and climate categories. Fees are a flat $0.02 per $1 contract at entry and exit, with $0 settlement fees on winners. The platform uses immediate-or-cancel order logic with no visible public order book and no limit orders. OG.com does not offer a public API, making it unsuitable for automated bot trading or programmatic data access — a critical limitation for AI agent integration. Margin trading on prediction contracts is planned pending CFTC certification, which would make OG the first platform to offer leveraged event contract trading. The platform is available in all US states except New York and Arizona, with sports trading additionally restricted in Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Nevada, and Ohio. Funding supports ACH, wire, PayPal, Venmo, debit card, Apple Pay, and Google Pay; withdrawals are ACH-only. CEO Nick Lundgren also serves as Crypto.com's Chief Legal Officer. OG.com's competitive advantages are its sports depth, parlay functionality, consumer-grade UX with social features (live chat, leaderboards), and Crypto.com's institutional backing.","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/og-com-prediction-market-guide/index.md"},{"title":"Rithmm Review: AI Sports Betting Intelligence","url":"https://agentbets.ai/tools/rithmm-ai-sports-betting-review/","section":"tools","date":"2026-04-06","lastmod":"2026-04-06","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Rithmm is an AI-powered sports betting intelligence platform founded by MIT graduates that provides predictive models, player prop analysis, and game picks across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, college football, college basketball, and PGA Tour golf. The platform's core differentiator is its no-code custom model builder that lets users adjust factor weights — such as pace, shooting efficiency, defensive pressure rate, and foul tendencies — to create personalized predictive models. Rithmm processes over 1 billion data points and claims 4 million+ winning predictions. Its Smart Signals feature (branded as 'Bolt picks') uses AI to flag high-confidence bets where historical patterns align with favorable conditions. Pricing starts at $29.99/month for the Core plan (AI props, game picks, Bolt picks, model builder, all leagues) and $99.99/month for Premium (advanced statistics, advanced model building, NFL/NBA player adjustment tool). Annual billing reduces Core to $19.99/month and Premium to $83.33/month. Rithmm is not a sportsbook — it is a prediction and analytics layer that users pair with their preferred betting platform. The app includes a line comparison tool across major sportsbooks, an AI parlay builder that flags risky legs and suggests swaps, and in-app bet tracking with social features. Available on iOS and Android with a 7-day free trial. Within the Agent Betting Stack, Rithmm operates at Layer 4 (Intelligence) as a signal generation and model-building tool, comparable to building custom intelligence pipelines but without writing code. It also has affiliate partnerships with Kalshi, Novig, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other sportsbooks.","llmContentType":"tool-review","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/tools/rithmm-ai-sports-betting-review/index.md"},{"title":"2020 Masters Golf Odds: Pre-Tournament Favorites, Line Movement \u0026 Betting Recap","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2020/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-05","lastmod":"2026-04-05","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Historical odds data for the 2020 Masters Tournament, played in November due to COVID-19. Covers pre-tournament favorites, closing odds, line movement from August through November 2020, and vig analysis across sportsbooks. Dustin Johnson won at -20, the lowest 72-hole score in Masters history.","llmContentType":"historical-data","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2020/index.md"},{"title":"2021 Masters Golf Odds: Pre-Tournament Favorites, Line Movement \u0026 Betting Recap","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2021/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-05","lastmod":"2026-04-05","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Historical odds data for the 2021 Masters Tournament. Covers pre-tournament favorites, closing odds, line movement, and vig analysis across sportsbooks. Hideki Matsuyama won at -10 at +3500 closing odds, becoming the first Japanese man to win a major championship.","llmContentType":"historical-data","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2021/index.md"},{"title":"2022 Masters Golf Odds: Pre-Tournament Favorites, Line Movement \u0026 Betting Recap","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2022/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-05","lastmod":"2026-04-05","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Historical odds data for the 2022 Masters Tournament. Covers pre-tournament favorites, closing odds, line movement from January through April 2022, and vig analysis across sportsbooks. Scottie Scheffler won at -10 at +1400 closing odds during his breakout season that included four wins in six starts.","llmContentType":"historical-data","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2022/index.md"},{"title":"2023 Masters Golf Odds: Pre-Tournament Favorites, Line Movement \u0026 Betting Recap","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2023/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-05","lastmod":"2026-04-05","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Historical odds data for the 2023 Masters Tournament. Covers pre-tournament favorites, closing odds, line movement from January through April 2023, and vig analysis across sportsbooks. Jon Rahm won at -12 with a final-round 65, erasing a four-shot deficit on Sunday.","llmContentType":"historical-data","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2023/index.md"},{"title":"2024 Masters Golf Odds: Pre-Tournament Favorites, Line Movement \u0026 Betting Recap","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2024/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-05","lastmod":"2026-04-05","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Historical odds data for the 2024 Masters Tournament. Covers pre-tournament favorites, closing odds, line movement from January through April 2024, and vig analysis across sportsbooks. Scottie Scheffler won his second green jacket at -11, finishing four strokes ahead of Ludvig Aberg as the pre-tournament favorite.","llmContentType":"historical-data","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2024/index.md"},{"title":"2025 Masters Golf Odds: Pre-Tournament Favorites, Line Movement \u0026 Betting Recap","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2025/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-05","lastmod":"2026-04-05","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Historical odds data for the 2025 Masters Tournament. Covers pre-tournament favorites, closing odds, line movement from January through April 2025, and vig analysis across sportsbooks. Rory McIlroy won at -11 in a playoff over Justin Rose, completing the career Grand Slam.","llmContentType":"historical-data","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds-2025/index.md"},{"title":"Masters Golf Odds, Analysis \u0026 Betting Guide","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-05","lastmod":"2026-04-05","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Comprehensive Masters Tournament betting guide covering outright winner odds, Augusta National course analysis, historical betting trends, vig analysis across sportsbooks, and AI agent strategies for automated odds shopping and line movement detection. Live odds data sourced from The Odds API and graded by the AgentBets Vig Index.","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-golf-odds/index.md"},{"title":"Masters Odds: 6-Year Data Analysis","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-odds-data-analysis/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-05","lastmod":"2026-04-05","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Original data analysis of 33,316 Masters Tournament outright odds records spanning 2020–2026, covering 21 bookmakers and 265 players across 50 snapshot dates. Key findings: pre-tournament favorites won only 1 of 6 completed Masters (17%), but players ranked in the top 5 by implied probability won 5 of 6 (83%). The average winning odds were +758, with most winners falling in the +400 to +900 range. Scottie Scheffler's market implied probability rose from 6.7% in 2022 to a peak of 20% in 2024 (when he won), and currently sits at 15.4% for 2026 — down from 25% in January, the largest pre-tournament contraction in the dataset. In every year from 2022–2025, the eventual winner was among the top 5 biggest line movers (players whose implied probability increased most from January to tournament week). Vig analysis of current 2026 odds shows BetOnline offers the lowest normalized vig at 0.32%, followed by DraftKings at 0.43%, while BetRivers charges 0.62%. Significant bookmaker disagreement exists on mid-tier contenders — Robert Macintyre's odds spread across books is +1,200 (from +2800 to +4000), creating actionable value-shopping opportunities. Year-by-year odds archives available for 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 at /guides/masters-golf-odds-{year}/. Data sourced from The Odds API across Unibet, Bovada, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetOnline, BetRivers, and 14 other sportsbooks.","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/masters-odds-data-analysis/index.md"},{"title":"ADI Predictstreet: FIFA World Cup Prediction Market","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/adi-predictstreet-fifa-world-cup-prediction-market-guide/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-04","lastmod":"2026-04-04","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"ADI Predictstreet is the Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026, announced April 2, 2026. It is the first time FIFA has designated a partner in the prediction market category. The platform is built on ADI Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain using ZKsync's Airbender zero-knowledge proof technology, audited by OpenZeppelin and Hacken. ADI Predictstreet is a subsidiary of Finstreet Limited, itself a subsidiary of International Holding Company (IHC), an Abu Dhabi conglomerate with a market capitalization exceeding $230 billion. The platform is licensed and operating from Gibraltar, which granted its first-ever prediction market license on March 26, 2026, under the 2005 Gambling Act. ADI Predictstreet will offer markets on match outcomes, tournament statistics, standout players, and key moments using FIFA's official historical data. It will also serve as the presenting partner for FIFA's free-to-play bracket challenge. The platform uses the $ADI token as its native gas token for on-chain transactions and operates under FIFA's integrity monitoring framework with real-time surveillance for suspicious trading activity. ADI Predictstreet plans a phased global rollout via mobile and desktop applications, with expansion beyond football into politics, economics, technology, and popular culture. The 2026 World Cup features 48 teams playing 104 matches across 16 host cities in Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The partnership places ADI Predictstreet in direct competition with Polymarket and Kalshi, which have existing deals with the NHL, MLB, MLS, and UFC.","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/adi-predictstreet-fifa-world-cup-prediction-market-guide/index.md"},{"title":"ClawCon Tokyo and the Lobster Cult of OpenClaw","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/openclaw-clawcon-tokyo-lobster-cult-swarm-intelligence/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-04","lastmod":"2026-04-04","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"ClawCon Tokyo, held March 30, 2026 at Shibuya Parco DG Building in Tokyo, drew over 600 attendees — many dressed as lobsters, OpenClaw's mascot — for the framework's first Asian community event. Founded by Peter Steinberger, OpenClaw has surpassed 196,000 GitHub stars and attracted enterprise partnerships from NVIDIA (NemoClaw) and ByteDance (Volcengine). The event featured live demos of voice-controlled agents, Genspark Cloud's hosted OpenClaw environments, and an autonomous agent that mistakenly bulk-ordered 300 lobster-themed onesies from a Tokyo wholesaler after misinterpreting a supply procurement prompt. Beyond the spectacle, ClawCon highlighted a serious technical trend: agent swarms as emergent data sources for prediction markets. Projects like MiroFish use thousands of interacting AI agents to generate collective forecasts through opinion drift, coalition formation, and emergent consensus — a fundamentally different approach from traditional ensemble averaging. Olas's Polystrat agent executed over 4,200 trades on Polymarket within its first month of operation in February 2026. For developers building on the Agent Betting Stack, swarm intelligence maps directly to Layer 4 (Intelligence) as a signal generation mechanism, where multiple OpenClaw agents running sentiment, odds-scanning, and OSINT skills can share state through Moltbook-style networks to produce crowd-sourced probability estimates that feed trading decisions at Layer 3.","llmContentType":"news-article","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/openclaw-clawcon-tokyo-lobster-cult-swarm-intelligence/index.md"},{"title":"DraftKings Predictions Guide for Agents","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/draftkings-predictions-guide/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-04","lastmod":"2026-04-04","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"DraftKings Predictions is a CFTC-regulated event contract platform launched December 2025, available in 38 U.S. states including non-sportsbook markets like California and Texas. DraftKings acquired Railbird Technologies in October 2025 to obtain a designated contract market (DCM) license, though the platform initially launched on CME Group exchange infrastructure. In February 2026, DraftKings partnered with Crypto.com Derivatives North America to add player-specific sports contracts and plans to expand into entertainment, culture, and politics categories. DraftKings projects a $10 billion annual gross revenue opportunity from prediction markets and announced a Super App at its March 2026 Investor Day that unifies sportsbook, predictions, casino, and iLottery into a single nationwide platform. The company is building a proprietary market-making division leveraging its existing sportsbook data science infrastructure — hundreds of data scientists and ML engineers who already model sports probabilities daily. DraftKings does not offer an official public API for its Predictions platform. Developer access requires third-party data providers like OpticOdds, Apify scrapers, or unofficial endpoint monitoring. For AI agent builders, DraftKings Predictions represents a regulated U.S. on-ramp to event contract trading, though the platform currently lacks the open exchange infrastructure that Polymarket and Kalshi provide for programmatic trading. The Railbird Exchange integration expected mid-2026 may change this by enabling DraftKings to control its own order book, pricing, and potentially offer direct API access.","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/draftkings-predictions-guide/index.md"},{"title":"FanDuel Predicts: Event Contracts Guide","url":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/fanduel-predicts-event-contracts-guide/","section":"guides","date":"2026-04-04","lastmod":"2026-04-04","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"FanDuel Predicts is a prediction market platform launched December 22, 2025 as a joint venture between FanDuel Group (Flutter Entertainment, NYSE: FLUT) and CME Group (NASDAQ: CME). The platform operates as a peer-to-peer exchange offering CFTC-regulated event contracts — not traditional sports bets — priced between $0.01 and $0.99 that settle at $1.00 or $0.00. FanDuel Predicts is live in all 50 US states as of January 15, 2026, with sports event contracts available in 18 states where online sports betting is not yet legal (including California, Texas, and Florida), and non-sports markets (finance, economics, politics, crypto, science) available nationwide. The platform charges approximately $0.02 per $1 of potential payout (2% fee on potential profit), plus CME Globex exchange fees of $0.01 per contract per side. Accounts are opened through FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a registered futures commission merchant and NFA member. KYC requirements include SSN, government ID, and banking information. Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, FanDuel Predicts does not offer a public developer API, limiting programmatic trading for AI agents and bots. Flutter Entertainment projects $200–300 million in incremental EBITDA costs during 2026 to build out the platform. FanDuel's AceAI, a generative AI chatbot for sports data analysis and parlay construction, currently operates within the FanDuel Sportsbook app and has not been integrated into the Predicts product. The platform competes directly with Kalshi, DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics Markets, and Polymarket for US prediction market share.","llmContentType":"technical-guide","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/guides/fanduel-predicts-event-contracts-guide/index.md"},{"title":"FIFA Names ADI Predictstreet Official World Cup PM","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/fifa-adi-predictstreet-official-prediction-market-partner-world-cup-2026/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-04","lastmod":"2026-04-04","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"On April 2, 2026, FIFA announced ADI Predictstreet as the Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026 — the first time FIFA has designated a partner in the prediction market category. ADI Predictstreet is built on ADI Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 using ZKsync's Airbender zero-knowledge proof technology, and is a subsidiary of Finstreet Limited under International Holding Company (IHC), an Abu Dhabi conglomerate with a market capitalization exceeding $230 billion. The platform received Gibraltar's first-ever prediction market license on March 26, 2026, and is scheduled for public launch on April 9, 2026. It will offer markets on match outcomes, player performances, and tournament statistics using FIFA's official data across all 104 matches of the 48-team tournament in Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The deal positions ADI Predictstreet alongside Polymarket (NHL, MLB, MLS, UFC) and Kalshi (NHL) in the growing landscape of league-sanctioned prediction market partnerships. The $ADI token hit an all-time high of $4.54 following the announcement. AgentBets.ai has published a comprehensive guide covering ADI Predictstreet's architecture, regulation, competitive positioning, and agent integration potential.","llmContentType":"news-analysis","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/fifa-adi-predictstreet-official-prediction-market-partner-world-cup-2026/index.md"},{"title":"py_clob_client Known Bugs: April 2026","url":"https://agentbets.ai/news/py-clob-client-known-bugs-april-2026/","section":"news","date":"2026-04-04","lastmod":"2026-04-04","changeType":"new","llmSummary":"Comprehensive tracker of active py_clob_client (v0.34.6) bugs affecting order placement as of April 2026. Documents GitHub issues #301 (minimum order size validation rejects valid small orders), #300 (get_balance_allowance returns inconsistent results), #299 (macOS Python 3.13 installation fails due to ckzg wheel build), #297 (proxy wallet allowances stuck at zero despite on-chain approval), #295 (cannot redeem closed market positions via SDK), #294 (reversed maker/taker semantics on sell orders causing incorrect fee attribution), #293 (CLOB API trades not appearing in Polymarket UI for certain wallet types), #287 (all orders fail with not enough balance/allowance despite verified on-chain balance and MAX_UINT256 CTF allowance on v0.34.6 with signature_type=1), #265 (cannot sell full position — API rejects final fractional shares with minimum size error while Polymarket UI allows it), and #245 (size_matched field does not reflect actual tokens received after taker fees on 15-minute crypto markets). Includes Python code to reproduce each bug, workarounds where available, and links to the relevant GitHub issue threads. Covers the interaction between the March 2026 feeRateBps requirement and existing order placement bugs. Built on py_clob_client v0.34.6 running on Python 3.9-3.12.","llmContentType":"bug-tracker","markdownUrl":"https://agentbets.ai/news/py-clob-client-known-bugs-april-2026/index.md"}]}